Wednesday, May 14, 2014


POOF! It is not officially summer in college radio land. I had been talking about a decline coming and over the past few weeks we have been losing a lot of stations to summer.
Over the past month we have gone from 310 stations to 289 to 267 to this weeks 238. Is this rock bottom? I don't think so. That usually comes on Memorial Day so expect another 2 weeks of drops before leveling off.

This week Mac Demarco is finally dethroned but not by Thee Oh Sees but rather Wye Oak!  They put on a nice charge and there were very few times I doubted it would not be #1 this week. I was surpassed by Thee Oh Sees not jumping at all and instead staying at #4, it did however 7% more stations than last week so it is gaining. This time of year with the number of stations dropping so fast I try and look more at the % of stations a record has rather than raw numbers.   This week Wye Oak had 60% of the stations to Thee Oh Sees 52%.   With Thee Oh Sees coming short I started thinking maybe I am expecting too much too soon.  This is after all only the 3rd week out there and even Arcade fire took 2 weeks to get to #1.   The last record to actually go #1 the week after the add week was the Black Keys (but they went for ADDS the last week of the year and debuted the first week of the next year) and that does not count you have to go back 2 full years to the Decembrists to find a record go #1 the week after ADDS.  Most records it looks like take around 3-4 weeks after adds to get to #1. Something to think about for future weeks.

The graph above is based on those percentages so you can kind of see the arc of a #1 record. I included War on Drugs and Cloud Nothing because, as you see it looks like they would of been #1 had they not been blocked by Mac Demarco.  And Broken Bells I included so you can see what a #2 record that had no real chance at #1 looks like.  

What I hope to do is to go further into these #s and see if we can't use them to predict if a record is going to go #1.   Also look at how well Real Estate did. Just crazy.  

This weeks #1 ADD was SWANS and If I had more time I would really want to look at how that band has grown at college radio.  Because unlike Mac Demarco, they have been around for a while with this being their 12th album.  Looking over my data that started in 2005 they had never had a #1 most added record. Yet all of a sudden everyone is excited about them.  I know circles of people that have preached how good Swans are for years but no one in radio really cared.  That might be something to look into soon.  

I need to start getting ready for the fantastic 14th Noncomm in Philly. See some of you there I hope!? 
Next week I should have a normal Blog and the week after I will be in Las Vegas for Punk ROCK BOWLING!!!   

You know where to find me. On the Twitters 

Go Bruins! 

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