With a very nice 60% of the stations Local Natives was able to nock off Toro Y Moi. You could see this coming a few weeks ago the slow build of stations over time has been rather impressive. So what now, who is going to be our next #1? Well this is where timing comes into things more than ever.
This following graph is the number of stations reporting each week throughout the year. I have reduced it to include only the last 3 years ( weeks are across the bottom and # of stations on the other axis)
The Blue line is 2011
Red is 2012
As you can see weeks 1-8 are mostly a slow climb, then weeks 9-12 are chaos. Weeks 9-12 are March.
You have SXSW, Spring Breaks, Midterms in general its a hard time to predict or to really know who is going to keep on reporting. In the past 8 years the record that holds the #1 spot on week 8 has gone on to lose it in week 9, also it is worth nothing that the record that holds the #1 spot in week 9 holds for an average of just over 3 weeks. The reason for this is a lot stations end up sending in the same chart for a few weeks in a row because of all the above noted factors making it harder to make a push for number one.
So in theory the next #1, be it Local Natives or something else, has a chance to be up there for a good amount of time. So who is in the running? Foxygen is hanging around at #2, Toro Y Moi at #3, Unknown Mortal Orchestra #4, Yo La Tengo #5, Tegan and Sara #6. Last weeks surprise Ducktails has already faltered out of the top 5 at #7 while last weeks big adds Foals comes in at #10 , STRFKR at #13 and Nick Cave at #19. Over the past few weeks we have seen lots of big jumps up the chart only to watch the records fizzle.
Ruby suns made that huge 118-13 move only to fall down to 15 the next week
Ducktails went from 135 - 7 only to stay at 7,make a rebound to 5 and then fall the next week back to 7
Fidlar went from 162 to 10 and has been stuck at 8
A lot goes into what makes a record go up or down but the track record recently of huge debuts or moves has been less than spectacular.
So back to the question. Who will be #1 going forward? Out of all of these a few stand out to me.
Local Natives has a great chance to buck the trend of getting hurt by the March Madness so I wont cut them out. Foxygen held strong but got jumped that is never a good sign for someone trying to get #1 Unknown Mortal Orchestra and Tegan and Sara are interesting and I could make a case for either. My gut, and the numbers tell me that those are the only real options for #1 next week.
This weeks top debut goes to ICEAGE coming in at #33 on the charts . The largest fall comes from The XX falling 74 spots ( not bad for a former #1 record thats been on the chart for 23 weeks) Only 26 new records on the chart this week and Foxygen is the only record staying in the same place as last week
This weeks ADDS race was won out by Mount Moriah with 82 adds. This year more than ever before it seems like the #1 add spot is a curse more than a blessing as only Toro Y Moi so far this year has gone from #1 most added to #1 on the charts.
One last thing I wanted to look at comes from Shil over at Team Clermont. Last week we looked at how close everything is in the top 10 does that same thing happen lets say in the 120-1209 range?
|120||108||122||108||6||CARRIE RODRIGUEZ||Give Me All You Got||Ninth Street Opus|
|121||125||-||121||2||CHARLES BRADLEY||"Strictly Reserved For You" [Single]||Dunham|
|122||170||-||122||2||DEER TRACKS||The Archer Trilogy, Pt. 3||The Control Group|
|123||-||-||123||1||MITZI||Truly Alive||Future Classic|
|124||100||67||16||9||CUB SCOUTS||Told You So [EP]||Self-Released|
|125||151||75||75||5||PANTHA DU PRINCE AND THE BELL LABORATORY||Elements Of Light||Rough Trade|
|126||180||-||126||3||RED BARAAT||Shruggy Ji||Sinj|
|128||-||-||128||1||PARENTHETICAL GIRLS||Privilege (Abridged)||Marriage-Slender Means Society|
|129||122||83||48||15||MAC DEMARCO||2||Captured Tracks|
In looking in this group of 10 the high was .046% of the stations and the low was .026%
When looking at raw numbers thats only a swing of 6 or so stations throughout the group. Much like in the top 10 the one with the most stations does not always have the highest spot. Carrie Rodriguez was the lone record to have the .026% while Deer Tracks and Red Baaraat had the highest %. So how does that compare to lets say the #200 record Slam Dunk? Slam Dunk comes in at THE SAME % of stations as Carrie Rodriguez. Pretty crazy that size of station and chart position can have that much effect changing a record from a potential #200 all the way to 120! Lets go 80 spots in the other direction to #40 well they come in with 5x the amount of stations and 16% of the stations. Just for fun lets look at one last record just to see how much change is between #40 and #120 That brings us to the #80 record Hemmingbirds. So my guess would be that it should come in around 8% of the stations. I was pretty close it came in at 9%.
Thanks again for reading! If you have any questions you want me to tackle let me know @theanimalarrg Let me know if you will be at SXSW as well! Until next time.