Wednesday, July 27, 2016

College radio recap week 30

Summertime in general is a tougher time to really figure out whats going to happen week to week on the charts. The number of stations reporting goes down thereby giving each station that does report a bit more power.
This summer we are seeing a bigger drop off in stations and of course this means even more impact to each individual station. For example when we see a 10 station gap between stations now its more like a 22-25 station gap would be in the fall. This is important for when we look at the charts today.

Lets take a look at the top 15 this week

12216MITSKIPuberty 2Dead Oceans --88
23723BADBADNOTGOODIVInnovative Leisure--81
34834BLOOD ORANGEFreetown SoundDomino--76
41115DEERHOOFThe Magic!Polyvinyl--89
6912763JULIE RUINHit ResetHardly Art--79
75448WHITNEYLight Upon The LakeSecretly Canadian--55
873112RADIOHEADA Moon Shaped PoolXL--64
9111694DJ SHADOWThe Mountain Will FallMass Appeal--53
111226113BAT FOR LASHESThe BrideWarner Bros--52
121918119CAR SEAT HEADRESTTeens Of Denial--40
1310628PAUL SIMONStranger To StrangerConcord--41
141419145MALE GAZEKing LeerCastle Face--36
1515558KILLSAsh And IceDomino--42

We see that Mitski comes back to the #1 spot while Deerhoof drops to #4. All throughout the week I thought that it would come down to Deerhoof and Mitski so I was a bit surprised when Deerhoof dropped all the way to #4.  
I am not surprised that Mitski went back up to #1. As we saw with Radiohead a month ago they went to #1 fell out and came back. Why does this happen? It happens, most likely, because they are the singular focus of that label and there is no outside indie trying to move things around. My guess is that Mitski has remained they same type of priority over the past 4 weeks whereas if an indie were working it you would see the record get #1 and most likely they would move on to the next major priority if there was one.  

You can also see looking above the numbers to the right of each record. Those are how many stations each has. It is a simplistic view of the charts without factoring in weights but most of the time it gives us a generally good idea of where each record will slot in. You only have to look deeper when there is something like Deerhoof dropping and having the most stations. I would then look at the charts and see the records above have bigger stations or higher chart numbers.  

With Deerhoof dropping out of the top spot I think it has a really huge impact for next weeks chart. This is where I start to look at whom is working each record. No indie on Mitski means they could just keep pushing, they have nothing to lose by doing so. They won't be harming any of their other records. Whitney is falling out so thats not a threat for the top and Dinosaur Jr ( this weeks #1 most added record) would be a few weeks away so I assume they keep on pushing. Also as a side note Secretly group is having a nice run here. Looking good. 

So the #2 spot is Badbadnotgood they have steadily moved up each week since they went for adds and seem to be gaining a fair amount of buzz. This seems like a good time to do a comparison to the Spinitron charts 

( the #1 spot has been removed because it was a heritage artist that got a lot of play due to a death)

As we see here though the top records line up pretty nicely with what is happening at CMJ.   The thing that stands out to me is Avalanches at #1. I am not sure if you can use Spinitron as a predictor of future charts but perhaps if Avalanches can make that jump then we should start to.  Back to Badbadnotgood, they are Cosigns only priority in this top grouping so like Secretly they are in a good position to just keep going the window for them remains open until they get jumped by more than one record, in my opinion.

I think that Deerhoof falling out of the top spot is actually a good thing, if I were working that record at least I would. By them falling out and falling to #4 I am now able to put all my concentration on my other priority in the top 10, The Julie Ruin. Remember The Julie Ruin took #1 most added a few weeks back and as far as I can tell has yet to be the main push so you can see it making that leap from  #6.
 Lastly the other two contenders are Blood orange and Avalanches. Both have the same amount of stations on them. But Avalanches has a significant lead in spins on spinitron and they have the benefit of being one week younger.  As a promoter I have always hated this situation and I do not envy The Syn here.  Two records that seemingly should both get to #1 and if you play it right you can most likely get them both there if you play it wrong you get neither but more than likely you get at least one there. But what one will it be?

It seems like we are bound to have a pretty exciting week at college radio over the next few weeks. The thing about summer though is that what takes a week to happen in the fall sometimes takes 2 or longer in the summer so this could be a slow moving train wreck.

Well thanks for reading lets talk about it on twitter. 

Also there seems to be no update from CMJ regarding Marathon for those of you asking. If you go to the website the last news article was posted June 1'st. In regards to the lawsuit it appears to be in some sort of Mediation but that is still ongoing.

At this point any week we have charts is a bonus. This is again why sites like Spinitron will be featured more heavily.

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