I said it here last week like it was an undisputed fact that we would see Thee Oh Sees at #1 this week. Well I was right but that does not tell the whole story really. I have been writing about how close everything is up at the top and how these next few weeks will be be pretty insane and it looks like that insanity is about to hit full on next week. This week Thee Oh Sees did get to #1 but it was not the landslide I had predicted. Jumping from #95 to #4 last week it seemed like they would beat out everyone by double digits. I kept track of all the big records all day Monday through Tuesday and not once throughout the 22 times I checked did they have the most stations charting them. In fact this week the #2 and #3 records ( The Strokes and Wavves) each have more stations charting them than Thee Oh Sees. In terms of percentage Thee Oh Sees have 51% of the stations while The Strokes have 54%. Neither is up near the 60% we have seen for some bigger #1's this year. Thee Oh Sees happen to have a slight edge when it comes to bigger stations and that was enough to overcome the 10 or so station lead The Strokes had in raw numbers. A lot of the time you can predict who will be #1 based upon raw numbers but when they are within 10 or so you really need to be looking at the ranking of the stations.
This week the top 10 has four new entries. The Knife at #4, Kurt Vile at #7, Iron and Wine at #8 and James Blake at #9. I wish I could be as bold as I was last week with Thee Oh Sees and just KNOW what would be #1 next week but there are so many factors this next week it really makes my headspin. Right now I think you could make arguments for 6 or 7 records having a chance at next weeks #1. You can never count out the incumbent, as once you are there it gets easier to gain stations and stay there. You don't get this close to #1 and give up so of course The Strokes still have a shot. The Knife, following the same path as Thee Oh Sees maybe? Iron and Wine, been #1 before has all the big AAA stations behind it and then we have this weeks records that went for adds. Junip, The Yeah Yeah Yeah's and Phoenix. All will be top 10 next week without a doubt but the YYY, despite a lackluster performance on adds come in with the biggest debut of the ADDS at #58.
So you have this large group of records that all have legit shots at going #1 and at the same time you have a lack of concentration from music directors due to it being the end of the year and also it being exam time. As we saw last week it starts to get difficult to force any real change on the charts and it also makes it harder to have an idea of what will happen. If stations that really love Iron and Wine but Hate Thee oh Sees report more next week then they have a real shot at #1. It also depends on how each promotion team comes to prioritize their records. Without calling out specific strategy lets take a look at some things that could happen.
Right now the records in the top 10 are being worked by 7 different companies and one in house promo team. However 3 of those records have more than one company on them. One company is working on 4 records, while 2 others are on 2 records. So as you can see there are a lot of overlapping parts here. So if company A working with company B has a different agenda then maybe that record misses its window, and this time of year its all about taking advantage of your window. The window right now seems perfect for either The Knife or Iron and Wine but again you cannot predict what everyone is setting out to do on the charts. Who knows company B could have a record they are working that they love so much but has not charted at all so they concentrate on that instead and thus end up missing the closing window. I can only tell you what I would do in each situation. And with each of those records I would make this next week my #1 push week, with the exception of Thee Oh Sees since it has already been there and I could focus on other records.
As I talked about briefly this weeks #1 most added record was Junip and in no offense to Junip I did not see that coming at all. I talked to a few other promoters about it as well and they were shocked it was not Phoenix or YYY. Both of those records came in significantly behind Junip as well. It was a runaway from the start. However Junip was the only BIG add with 2 indies on it this week and you never know if some records get mailed out on time or perhaps too early. The YYY debut was very high and indicates that the muffed ADD week will be no big deal. I also heard from some stations that they did not yet see the Phoenix record so that could of been what slowed them down as well.
This weeks top debut goes to Akron/ Family at #26. The biggest jump is from The Flaming lips coming in at #20 with an 88 point jump. I had almost forgotten about them but if previous Flaming Lips records are any indication we should still pay attention and see what happens with this one. We had 33 debuts this week going back to what had been a somewhat normal number for debuts.
I am really excited to see what happens next week though it should make for a crazy top of the charts.
If you have any questions or topics you want me to talk about please hit me up on twitter at @theanimalarrg . Until next time have a great week. ...
oh also in unrelated just for fun here is a video Omar reminded me of.
Ride the Snake
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