Wednesday, April 17, 2013


The number one carousel continues to turn with the third new #1 record in as many weeks. This week, as I thought might happen WAVVES takes the spot with 52% of the reporting stations. I would not get used to seeing them there though as we have a LOT of records that seem poised to move into that spot next week.

Just looking at the top of the charts we have a lot that have put themselves in a position to take the #1 spot. The Strokes continue to move up the chart all the way to #2 but this record looks to be so much like the Tegan and Sara record. It missed its window by a week and is about to be jumped yet again by more records so I see no path for them to get #1. I can easily tell you who will be the #1 record next week but lets go through the rest of the contenders first.  Low continues to move up and even locked down #1 on AAA but it seems they don't have enough of the overall panel to make a real move up to the top.  Telekinesis made a nice move into the top 10 up to #8 and I could see them getting a spot or 2 higher but this is week 4 for them and this time of year thats considered old.  Postal Service is on the outside of the top 10 at #11 and has a good chance to have a top 10 peak but I would not expect much more.  James Blake really picked the wrong week to go for adds it seems. I keep on hearing from kids how much they like this record and to be #12 the week after you go for adds is very impressive but there are records that will surely block James path to the top.  If 6 out of 10 stations have told me they like James Blake I would have to say 8 out of 10 are telling me about Kurt Vile. He comes in at #13 after the ADD week and any other time of year I would say he would have a shot.  However, nothing, no one is going to be able to stop Thee Oh Sees.  This week they come in at #4 a week after collecting 172 adds and debuting at #95.

This weeks ADD race came down to IRON AND WINE and THE KNIFE and it was one of the more exciting races to the finish I have seen. We saw something similar with Local Natives and Tegan and Sara earlier this year but this one came down to ONE STATION.    There were many swings on this weeks race. At first Iron and Wine got out to a 49-43 lead  with 93 stations having reported on Monday morning.  The six station lead held for most of the day with it getting as low as 3 adds before jumping back to 6 rather quickly. Our first tie came in with 183 of the stations reporting on tuesday morning with 99 adds each and slowly The Knife began to pull away. With 208 stations reporting they were up by 2 adds. With 222 stations reporting The Knife had a 5 station lead and with 232 stations reporting the lead was up to 7 stations.

This week there were 270 stations that reported adds. So with 85% of the would be reporters having reported The Knife had a 7 station lead and with only a half hour left in reporting. At this point we don't know there will still be 38 reporters but we figure it will get close to last weeks add total of 280 but a 7 station lead with 30 min is usually enough to stop worrying.  At 240 stations the lead was The Knife by 6 stations. At 251 reporters with 12 MIN left to report the lead was The Knife by 3 stations and then at 262 reporters the 7 station lead had completely disappeared and we were tied at 147 ADDs each.  At 269 stations and my computer frozen we each had 152 ADDS.   When the dust settled there would be 270 reporters. The Knife would be #1 most Added with 153 adds and Iron and Wine #2 with 152.

So yeah this week was intense to the last second. Please, don't you EVER forget that every station matters when it comes to ADDS when you ADD a record from 5 weeks ago it helps no one.  So what does the mean going forward.  Well Both The Knife ( #62) and Iron and Wine (#88) debut on the ADD week in much the same way Thee Oh Sees did last week at #95. You also cant overlook this weeks #3 most added record The Flaming lips who also debut at #108.  If Thee Oh Sees can make such a move you have to think these other records have a shot as well. And in order to get #1 they better try. Next week brings in the new Yeah Yeah yeahs and also the new Phoenix record ( I see another #1 battle brewing for adds) and both of those should shoot up the charts as well.

The window is closing for this group of records to really have a shot at #1.  I had this graph a few weeks ago and I wanted to share an updated version of it again.

The blue and red lines are from the past 2 years and the green line is for this year.  Currently we are in week 15 of the charting year. We should peak up again next week and then should start a free-fall of stations. We will loose them to summertime, exams, stress, binge drinking and many other factors but we will lose a LOT of stations and lose them very quickly weeks 17-20. That means changes are going to be harder to come by on the charts. Thats why I see an all out push for a lot of these records where you might normally see them wait it out a few weeks. The window for all of these records is roughly the same and only a few will get to #1. Which ones? Your guess is as good as mine.  The only one I will say for sure is Thee Oh Sees next week. 

The number one debut of the week comes from Milk Music at #46, the biggest move comes from Kurt Vile jumping from #193 to #13. There were only 25 debuts this week.  As always if you have any questions or anything you think I should take a look at please hit me up at @theanimalarrg on twitter. 

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