I knew it was coming. You can try and prepare as much as you can but really what can you do? I have mentioned for the last few weeks that the drop off was coming and I pointed to this week as the week to watch.
If you remember last week there were 314 stations that reported to CMJ this week we drop all the way down to 268 stations! A drop of almost 50 stations! We knew it was coming but you can never know what stations are not going to report the same as we don't know what stations will come back next week. These transition weeks are certainly hard to deal with and they make the ever elusive window for a record to go #1 even harder to gauge. The end of spring is always hard not only because of the exams, and people leaving for break or graduating but also because record labels tend to try and get the bigger records out before summertime. ( the same thing happens in October when the bigger profile records come out to impact at Christmas) With all of this happening at the same time you get a lot of big records that won't get the number one spot.
Last week we saw Thee Oh Sees take it for the 2nd week in a row and early on there was a real shot they could make it 3. At certain points this week Iron and Wine, Thee Oh Sees, The Knife, Phoenix, Junip, Kurt Vile and Flaming Lips all looked like they were in striking distance of the #1 spot. In the end Iron and Wine won out with Thee Oh sees in 2nd, The Knife in 3rd and Phoenix in 4th.
So going forward, knowing everything I mentioned above, it becomes harder to know what really will happen on the charts. I doubt we will get back up to 300 until Fall and if the last few years are any indication we should see another big drop next week. The last few years it has bottomed out around 220 reporters with it usually coming in anywhere from 260-240 but we will have no idea which 200+ will be reporting. I thought going into this week that it would come down to Iron and Wine, The Knife or Phoenix and was a little surprised to see Thee oh Sees only fall to 2 and Phoenix only Jump to 4. What happens next not only depends on how people view their chances.
I think the only records in the top 10 you really take out of the running completely are Thee Oh sees, as records don't fall to #2 and jump back to #1 very often. Kurt Vile, James Blake and Black Angels as you don't see records that have been out for 5 or more weeks make a real run at the top spot.
If this were 3 weeks ago I would have no doubt in my mind in declaring that Phoenix would be your next #1, the same way I thought Thee Oh sees would take it a few weeks ago. So that leaves The Flaming Lips, Junip, The Yeah Yeah Yeahs and The Knife as the remaining records that have a shot, along with Iron and Wine of course retaining the spot. But I don't think they will but it all depends on if the priority shifts to Yeah Yeah Yeahs. The Flaming lips a perennial #1 band you can't really count out made some big moves this week in terms of # of stations and is in a good position with who is working it to continue making a move. Junip and The Knife I sort of view as an either or proposition. You have gone so far with The Knife and things are so close that how could you not continue to push for the top spot on the other hand if you do that do you miss your window on Junip? While the records are VERY different, every station matters and when every station matters for your record can you afford to have a station saying they only have room for one mute band? It sounds absurd but it does happen. So yeah I have no idea really as to what will happen this week but my guess would be Phoenix for #1 next week.
This week on ADDS we saw She and Him come in at #1 most added with 105 adds. They won by almost 20 adds and as we see summer start to creep in I think we will see more runaway ADD weeks as there will be less huge records to deal with. Or perhaps that will lead to closer ADD charts. I think most weeks will have an Alpha type add that gets most of the love and then everything else will be close but it will be interesting to see. Also what about She and Him? Is that a #1 contender or does !!! have more of a shot having been last weeks #1 most added. Its hard to tell and I think it depends on what comes out next week. In 3 weeks when She and Him would be in a position to make a move Phoenix, Junip and Yeah Yeah Yeahs will be out there for 6 weeks and will be falling.
In other charting news !!! had a great week and comes in with the biggest move of the week from #190 to #15! Daughter comes in at #29 as the biggest debut of the week. There are currently 11 former #1 records on the chart and 6 #2 records. The oldest of the #1s still on there is Tame Impala with an impressive 28 weeks, that is actually the longest tenured record currently on the chart. This week we had 32 debuts back to what our average had been before last week.
The next few weeks are also crazy for me as I head to Philadelphia for the AAA Non-commention So if you are going hit me up. Then the next week I will be in Vegas for PUNKROCKBOWLING So I cannot promise there will be recaps over the next few weeks but I will try to post something here for those of you that like it. To those people I also say thanks for reading! If you have any questions or comments or want to talk about the world of college radio please hit me up on twitter @theanimalarrg
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