CMJ ISSUE 1289 RECAP

Just like that, we have a new #1 record. Welcome to the party Youth Lagoon.  I mentioned last week I saw them having the best shot to make a run for #1 and just like that they did. I thought Nick Cave had a shot at retaining #1. But really in looking at the big picture they look lucky to have squeezed into that window. Last weeks 45% of the stations was awfully low for a #1 and you like to see the #1 record have at least half of the stations at radio. Youth Lagoon did that this week getting up to 51% of the stations. While Nick Cave went down to 45% from last weeks high of 48%.  

We are finally starting to see some of the old records that have been clogging the top 10 for the last 6+ weeks fall out. Tegan and sara is on the way out, Local Natives, Unknown Mortal orchestra, and Foxygen should all vacate the top 10 next week.  STRFKR I thought would be a contender but is already on its downward trend.   Last weeks top add Devendra Banhart has a small window to take it next week as they move within one of the top 10. David Bowie falls back a little bit from the pace of Devendra coming in at 15.   Even though its only a few spots back I have little faith in Bowie making a run for #1 and the chances for Devendra at about 40%.  I think Youth Lagoon hangs on for another week though as the only immediate challenge could come from The Men but amazingly enough they went up 4 spots but LOST stations!  So crazy when that happens.  

What intriques me the most right now are the records that just went for adds this week.  WAVVES was your #2 most added with 105 adds and Strokes take #1 with 106 adds. Both of these should be contenders for #1.   So as of today we have 6 records that will battle for the top spot over the next few weeks. 

YOUTH LAGOON has the best shot to retain the spot 

THE MEN

DEVENDRA BANHART

DAVID BOWIE

WAVVES

THE STROKES 

you could also make arguments for  either  PHOSPHORESCENT or LOW. 

LOW has a LONG way to go and by that time there will be another 3-5 records in the mix for #1 so 

I just don't see how they do it. PHOSPHORESCENT is interesting to me because they had a really nice jump in stations this week that don't really reflect the overall jump on the charts.  As I mentioned I do think Youth Lagoon holds on for another week but then most of these records jump into the top 10. 

While I have only mentioned Wavves and The Strokes from adds this past week I think it would be foolish to overlook Born Ruffians and Telekinesis only because of their history at radio and how tough of an ADD week it was. I talked to a lot of stations this week that told me their favorite adds of the week were those 2 records.  The most talked about this week was the new Wavves and thats why i was surprised that it did not get the #1 ADD spot. I won't be shocked though when Wavves gets to #1 and The Strokes never do.  One thing The strokes have that Wavves to not is 2 indies. I have been working to quantify how much an indie is worth to a record vs no indie or two indies. Still a while away from that but watching how this plays out will give us a good idea on the impact. 

This weeks #1 debut of the week was Black Angles at #28. The biggest move of the week comes from the previously mentioned LOW with a nice 80 spot jump. We had 29 debuts this week closer to the normal we have seen to start the year.  

Thanks for reading, should be fun once everyone is back from spring breaks and we have a legit 10 records in the top 10 that could be #1 soon.   Be sure to follow me on twitter @theanimalarrg  and hit me up if you have any questions, comments, corrections or suggestions. 

CMJ RECAP ISSUE 1288

Spring break, SXSW, Midterms. So much relaxing hopefully. We missed last week with the festivities in Texas but what really did we miss? They Might Be Giants secured #1 most added and Local Natives Held strong at #1.   As I have mentioned before with all the breaks going round a lot of what happens on the chart is running in place, making it harder for movement on the charts.  Despite that there was no holding Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds back as they are the 6th #1 record of the year. They come in with our lowest percentage of the year at 48%.

It really comes down to timing with Nick Cave. For the last 5 or so weeks it has been Local Natives, Tegan and Sara, Foxygen and Unknown Mortal orchestra all going for the same spots at every station. Looking back you can see how close each week was only a few station between each record. Because of this each company pushing those records saw no need to lay off the pressure on pushing that record. But eventually stations start leaving the records and over the past few weeks the numbers of stations charting all of those records has fallen. They have fallen because the records are so old.  At the same time we have seen records from Fidlar, Ducktails, Foals and Frightened Rabbit all show promise the first week out but none of them became real challengers. Nick Cave did though. Why?

Well I have my theories and the best way to categorize it would be  --Perfect Timing-- or in this case "A fresh Start"    The first time I saw this was WAY back in 2002.  Bad Religion had been a mainstay at college radio in the 80's and 90's But slowly people stopped caring. They were on Atlantic putting out Major label records trying to write hits.  Then they got dropped and went BACK to Epitaph their home for, what fans would say, their best records.  So they go back to Epitaph and put out a record in 2002. All of a sudden people have something good to say about the band, some new angle to write about, there is a BUZZ about the band and they kill it at college radio. No one expected it but the record went straight to #1 and EASILY.  Then the next record only went top 7, the next after that top 15-20 and the last one barely cracked the top 50.  Not because the last record was any better or worse than that one in 2002 but because in 2002 they released the record at the perfect time.   It happened a few years ago with Tegan and Sara's, The Con, last year with Passion Pit.  There are many other examples and it is not to say that these were not good records it's just that the timing led perfectly to them being #1 despite the competition around them.

I say this about the Nick Cave record only because of his history. The last Nick Cave record to go #1 was 2003's Nocturama. His first for Anti. Each record after this did progressively worse. Not that people did not care. People love Nick Cave but people tend to take greatness for granted.  Until this new record. He starts his own label. The press writes more about this record. New people are introduced to him and Boom #1.

So what is next? Well Tegan and Sara, against all odds, are still moving up all the way to #2. Gaining stations. If not for the newness and excitement surrounding Nick Cave they could be #1. Do they have a shot at #1? Well my philosophy is that until a record goes down it can still go up ( when you are up that high) So until they go down I think they have a chance. However there are some fast risers I see in the upcoming weeks, some I have a lot more faith than I had in records like STRFKR ( stalled at #7 this week) or The Men ( a decent jump to #14) or Foals ( stall at #6 ) The next record with a window is Youth Lagoon with a nice move to #5 in its 3rd week or 2nd real week.  But the records that scare me right now went for adds this week. David Bowie, Low and this weeks #1 most added Devendra Banhart.  Both Bowie and Devendra debuted at 60 and 61 respectively. ( And were the #1 and #2 debuts of the week!! ) Lately #1 most added record have been debuting in the top 120-90 range. So the fact they are up that high makes me think people are tired of the records that are clogging the top of the charts. I think these should make HUGE moves next week. Top 10 should be expected for both but I would not be shocked with top 5 for both.  Low is an interesting one as I thought It would of done better but the last one did great and Sub Pop always does well so I am not ready to count them out even though they had a sub-par add week.

This week there were 23 debuts ( a really low number) we were around 30+ for the last 4-6 weeks so I am surprised to see such a drop off. Our biggest move comes from RHYE with a 154 point jump barely beating out Phosphorescent with a 151 spot jump.  Phosphorescent  are another one worth keeping an eye on. If I learned anything by watching Foxygen and Unknown Mortal Orchestra it's that you don't dismiss a Dead Oceans record right now.

I wanted to take a second to mention my highlights of the week, by far my favorite band was Widowspeak I thought they were fantastic. I could list all the bands I work with on my list but will keep it to one and that was Milk Carton Kids, they blew me away. I saw them in a church and it was PERFECT.

As always thank you for reading and if you have any questions please hit me up on Twitter via the link over to the right.

CMJ ISSUE 1286 RECAP

You never do see it all really. Every time you think you have something changes.  As you may recall last week we talked about how March is filed with craziness. I expected there to be some drop off this week from last week but it looks like we are still a week or so away from any such drop off. We actually GAINED stations this week on both the top 200 and the ADDS reporting.  With next week being SXSW we are sure to see some drop off in the next few weeks.  

This week was one of the closest races I have seen for the top 5 at CMJ. We have 5 records all within 15 stations of each other.  Local Natives held strong at #1 with 51% of the stations. WAY down from last weeks impressive 60% of stations.  The rest of the top five

Foxygen had 47% of the stations
Unknown Mortal Orchestra 47% of the stations
Tegan and Sara with 50% of the stations
Nick Cave and the Bad seeds with 46%

A handfull of stations charting any of the others in the top 4 could of pushed them ahead.  It seems like we have been talking about Tegan and Sara, Foxygen, Unknown Mortal Orchestra and Local Natives for a while now. Each have been out there for around 5+.  I thought early on this week that Nick Cave had a real chance at getting #1, making real strides from a subpar first week.  STRFKR joins the top 10 party at #7. Foals runs in place at #10 and Ducktails, Toro Y Moi, are on the way out.

I keep looking at the huge drop on Local Natives from 60% to just over 50%, a drop in just under 30 stations. Yet they hold strong at #1 and while there was some parts of Monday and Tuesday I thought they might fall they consistently came in with the most stations and the larger stations. It is just so rare to lose that much and not fall.  So what going forward?  It all depends on what Local Natives do I think. If they want to keep #1 for another week I think it is theirs but it is hard to tell what the priorities at a promotion company can be. Is it more important for another week at #1 or for a record underachieving in the top 30 to jump up. Not that you can't do both but concentrating on one or the other leads to success in one or the other instead of failure in both.

This applies to every promotion company and label, we each have goals and from week to week those change and are adjusted along with the results. Lets say you have the #2 record for 5 weeks in row and at the same time you have a record that you thought would easily get to the top 20 but is now stuck in the lower 40s. What do you do? In trying to do both you have a bigger shot for failure but choosing wrong will also lead to failure.   I tend to think if you have a record in the top 5 you keep going for it until it goes down on the charts.   Thats why I think this next week everyone in the top 5 will be pushing to stay there and also trying to get to #1. They all have a shot too.

On the outside looking in we have STRFKR with a nice jump into the top 10.  Thao and the Get down Stay down continue the slow and steady climb up and I would not be shocked to see them get into the top 5 but I find it more likely that STRFKR will make a move or even more likely that the top 5 is composed of the same 5 records but in some other order.   Running in place always worries me so you have to worry about Foals a little bit, Pissed Jeans, Beach Fossils and Frightened Rabbit all have hit the skids a bit and really don't hold any top five threat at this time.  I expected a big move from Atoms for Peace but at 22 they do not scare me that much and Cave Singers right behind them is in the same Boat.

Our top ADD this week comes from Youth Lagoon with 138 ADDS. The only other add with over 100 was The MEN with 106.

This week we saw 30 new debuts keeping in line with the year so far, 30 tends to be the average.
The top mover comes from the new WAVVES single jumping a very nice 126 spots on the flipside the biggest drop goes to Widowspeak with an 87 point drop.  The top 2 records Local Natives and Foxygen stayed the same, we also Foals in the same spot as last week. INC. also stayed at 90 for the second week in a row as did Bleeding Rainbow at 91 for the second straight week.  So a good number of records just running in place this week.

Next week I will be at SXSW and will be unable to do a Recap but if you have any questions or anything you want me to cover you can hit me up on twitter @theanimalarrg   Also thank you to those that pointed out the few mistakes I made last week. I will try to keep doing better, thank you for reading.

CMJ ISSUE 1285 RECAP

As we have noticed over the past few weeks it is TIGHT up at the top of the charts. We have seen a handful of records jockey for that #1 spot as Toro Y Moi has held pretty strong until this week.  This week left no doubt from the start of reporting to the end who was going to be #1 --LOCAL NATIVES.
With a very nice 60% of the stations Local Natives was able to nock off Toro Y Moi.   You could see this coming a few weeks ago the slow build of stations over time has been rather impressive.  So what now, who is going to be our next #1? Well this is where  timing comes into things more than ever.

This following graph is the number of stations reporting each week throughout the year. I have reduced it to include only the last 3 years ( weeks are across the bottom and # of stations on the other axis)
The Blue line is 2011
Red is 2012
Green 2013

As you can see weeks 1-8 are mostly a slow climb, then weeks 9-12 are chaos. Weeks 9-12 are March.
You have SXSW, Spring Breaks, Midterms in general its a hard time to predict or to really know who is going to keep on reporting. In the past 8 years the record that holds the #1 spot on week 8 has gone on to lose it in week 9, also it is worth nothing that the record that holds the #1 spot in week 9 holds for an average of just over 3 weeks.  The reason for this is a lot stations end up sending in the same chart for a few weeks in a row because of all the above noted factors making it harder to make a push for number one.

So in theory the next #1, be it Local Natives or something else, has a chance to be up there for a good amount of time. So who is in the running?  Foxygen is hanging around at #2, Toro Y Moi at #3, Unknown Mortal Orchestra #4, Yo La Tengo #5, Tegan and Sara #6. Last weeks surprise Ducktails has already faltered out of the top 5 at #7 while last weeks big adds Foals comes in at #10 , STRFKR at #13 and Nick Cave at #19.  Over the past few weeks we have seen lots of big jumps up the chart only to watch the records fizzle.

Ruby suns made that huge 118-13 move only to fall down to 15 the next week
Ducktails went from 135 - 7 only to stay at 7,make a rebound to 5 and then fall the next week back to 7
Fidlar went from 162 to 10 and has been stuck at 8

A lot goes into what makes a record go up or down but the track record recently of huge debuts or moves has been less than spectacular.

So back to the question. Who will be #1 going forward?  Out of all of these a few stand out to me.
Local Natives has a great chance to buck the trend of getting hurt by the March Madness so I wont cut them out.  Foxygen held strong but got jumped that is never a good sign for someone trying to get #1 Unknown Mortal Orchestra and Tegan and Sara are interesting and I could make a case for either.  My gut, and the numbers tell me that those are the only real options for #1 next week.

This weeks top debut goes to ICEAGE coming in at #33 on the charts . The largest fall comes from The XX falling 74 spots ( not bad for a former #1 record thats been on the chart for 23 weeks) Only 26 new records on the chart this week and Foxygen is the only record staying in the same place as last week


This weeks ADDS race was won out by Mount Moriah with 82 adds.  This year more than ever before it seems like the #1 add spot is a curse more than a blessing as only Toro Y Moi so far this year has gone from #1 most added to #1 on the charts.

One last thing I wanted to look at comes from Shil over at Team Clermont. Last week we looked at how close everything is in the top 10 does that same thing happen lets say in the 120-1209 range?

120	108	122	108	6	CARRIE RODRIGUEZ	Give Me All You Got	Ninth Street Opus
121	125	-	121	2	CHARLES BRADLEY	"Strictly Reserved For You" [Single]	Dunham
122	170	-	122	2	DEER TRACKS	The Archer Trilogy, Pt. 3	The Control Group
123	-	-	123	1	MITZI	Truly Alive	Future Classic
124	100	67	16	9	CUB SCOUTS	Told You So [EP]	Self-Released
125	151	75	75	5	PANTHA DU PRINCE AND THE BELL LABORATORY	Elements Of Light	Rough Trade
126	180	-	126	3	RED BARAAT	Shruggy Ji	Sinj
127	-	-	127	1	PASCAL PINON	Twosomeness	Morr
128	-	-	128	1	PARENTHETICAL GIRLS	Privilege (Abridged)	Marriage-Slender Means Society
129	122	83	48	15	MAC DEMARCO	2	Captured Tracks

In looking in this group of 10 the high was .046% of the stations and the low was .026%
When looking at raw numbers thats only a swing of 6 or so stations throughout the group.  Much like in the top 10 the one with the most stations does not always have the highest spot. Carrie Rodriguez was the lone record to have the .026% while Deer Tracks and Red Baaraat had the highest %.  So how does that compare to lets say the #200 record Slam Dunk?  Slam Dunk comes in at THE SAME % of stations as Carrie Rodriguez. Pretty crazy that size of station and chart position can have that much effect changing a record from a potential #200 all the way to 120!  Lets go 80 spots in the other direction to #40 well they come in with 5x the amount of stations and 16% of the stations.  Just for fun lets look at one last record just to see how much change is between #40 and #120 That brings us to the #80 record Hemmingbirds.  So my guess would be that it should come in around 8% of the stations. I was pretty close it came in at 9%.  

Thanks again for reading! If you have any questions you want me to tackle let me know @theanimalarrg  Let me know if you will be at SXSW as well! Until next time.

CMJ ISSUE 1284 RECAP

Another week and another week with Toro Y Moi at #1.  However I was wrong about a few things from last week, something I was not wrong about was that it is getting very tight up at the top.  It does look like we have seen the peak with Toro when they had 61% of the stations last week. This week they fall to 57%. At the same time Foxygen showed no signs of slowing as they maintain 55% of the stations.    Local Natives keeps the pressure on at #3 with 53% of the stations while Yo La Tengo keeps holding on at #4 with 44% ( propped up by a slew of larger stations) .

Last week I predicted a top 4 of Toro Y Moi, Local Natives Tegan and Sara and Yo La Tengo. 3 out of 4 is not half bad. I will get into this more when I have more data but I overestimated the strength of indies over labels.  It will be interesting to see what happens next week as Foxygen had a REAL shot of #1 this week and no doubt Local Natives will be pushing for #1 next week.  I have to believe that the Toro Y Moi run is over at this point and that next week we will see a new #1.  I don't see any other record having a real shot other than Foxygen and Local Natives but any of the rising top 10 could put themselves in position to take it soon. 

Lets look at this weeks top 10 overall in terms of both raw numbers and percentage change from the previous week.  

1) TORO Y MOI ( 57%)   +2 STATIONS  DOWN 4%
2) FOXYGEN  (55%) +11 STATIONS  STEADY %
3) LOCAL NATIVES(53%)  +23 STATIONS UP 4%
4) YO LA TENGO (44%)  -7 STATIONS  DOWN 6%
5) DUCKTAILS (49%)  + 21 STATIONS UP 4 %
6) UNKNOWN MORTAL ORCHESTRA(52%) + 27 STATIONS UP 5%
7) TEGAN AND SARA (48%) + 15 STATIONS UP 2 %
8) FIDLAR (44%)  +9 STATIONS  STEADY %
9) RA RA RIOT(41%) - 7 STATIONS DOWN 6%
10) THAO AND THE GET DOWN STAY DOWN(30%)  + 33 STATIONS UP 9%

You can see how different the top of the top 10 is from the bottom of the top 10.  As a general rule 60% of the stations is almost always a 1 record. A lot of the time it takes just around 55% In looking at last years numbers most #1 records had 55% to 63% of the stations. The lowest #1 record  last year had 53% of the stations while the highest had 78%( the most dominate #1 I have ever seen, it was Black Keys in case you were wondering)   The next few weeks will be interesting for sure.

Last weeks #1 most added record Frightened Rabbit stumbled out the gate coming in at 27. Pissed Jeans made a nice move to #16 from #132 and will be worth keeping an eye on. This weeks number one most added was Nick Cave and the Bad seeds with 131 adds the second most adds for any records this year behind Tegan and Sara.  Foals and STRFKR also gain over 100 adds. This week was all Nick Cave from start to finish with no real threat of anything else taking it.  I think the timing of the Nick Cave record will help it have a great chance at #1.  It is curious to note that no  Nick Cave record has gone #1 in the last 10 years. This time around feels different though.

I still think that there are about 5 records at radio now that could be the next few #1's . What do you think?

Lets look at all the other data.  We had 39 debuts this week the highest coming from Beach Fossils at #21.  The biggest move comes from Pissed Jeans jumping an impressive 122 spots!  The largest drop comes from Black Moth Super Rainbow going down 77 spots, however thats in its 14th week. In case you were wondering the record on the charts the longest right now is the Lumineers at 35 weeks!

Last weeks poll question asked, since 2005 what band has had the most #1 records. It is actually a 3 way tie. Iron and Wine, Black Keys and Animal Collective have each been #1 4 times since then!

Thanks for reading  be sure to follow me on twitter @theanimalarrg   and if there is anything involving college radio you have questions about please ask! 

CMJ ISSUE 1283 RECAP

Things are about to get crazy. Let us jump right into it! This week Toro Y Moi continues its reign at #1 with a whopping 61% of stations reporting them. Yo La Tengo continues in the #2 spot and Foxygen up to #3. Remember last week Foxygen had only 48% of the stations but they jump all the way to 55%.

You might also recall last week huge debuts and or moves from Ducktails and Fidlar, also remember that I said they were about to be jumped. In comes last weeks huge add class with Local Natives in at #4, Unknown Mortal Orchestra at #6 and last weeks #1 most added Tegan and Sara in at #10.  So yeah things are about to get intense with every promoter acting like if they don't get what they want their cat will die.  This, to me, is when promoting gets fun. You have 5-6 different records, depending on who you ask, that have a legit shot at going #1 and you have a different company working each of them!  THEN you have some really big records coming the next few weeks! Looks like Distiller put themselves in the best position with Local Natives in at #4 so quickly. I think Next week you will see the top 4 be Toro Y Moi, Local Natives, Tegan and Sara and Yo La Tengo. 

This weeks ADDs race was another close one with Frightened Rabbit beating out Beach Fossils by 3 adds but with neither of them busting the 90 add threshold.  The chance of either of these records getting to #1  with the records that are out there now is small but not impossible.  Even more slim when you take into account the records coming between now and SXSW.  Not every week can bring you 3 records that have a shot at #1 like last week.  

This weeks chart really got me thinking about last week's add week even more. Tegan and Sara squeaked it out at #1 but this week both the #2 and #3 most added record vaulted over them. This tends to happen a lot but what does it mean for that #1 most added record? 

To get a good picture I went back through my records back to 2005. 

In 2005 there were 17 #1 records and of those 10 of them were most Added. This is out of 49 reporting weeks so 32 most added records did not go to #1.  So that means that 58% of the #1 records were also most added but that only 20% of the most added made it to #1 

2006 19#1 records and 10 of those were most added out of 46 weeks. 21% of most added went to #1

2007 15 #1 records and 10 of those were most added out of 47 weeks 21% of most added went to #1

2008 17 #1 records and 11 of those were most added out of 48 weeks 22 % of most added went to #1 

2009 18 #1 records and 14 of those were most added out of 48 weeks 29% of most added went to #1

2010 16 #1 records and 13 of those were most added out of 46 weeks 28% of most added went to #1

2011 22 #1 records and 17 of those were most added out of 49 weeks 34% of most added went to #1 

2012 21 #1 records and 15 of those were most added out of 48 weeks 31% of most added went to #1

So while most of the #1 records were most added, being most added does not strongly indicate that you will go to #1.  With an average of 18 #1 records a year and each #1 record holding that spot for an average of 2.6 weeks it tends to block out a good number of #1 most added.  But it is good to see that over the past 8 years 68% of all #1's have come from being most added.   

There is a lot of data there and In trying to present it as objectively as possible it may make it difficult to comb through.  I will say I am somewhat surprised in seeing that being #1 most added does not lead to being #1 more often but not that surprised that most #1's were most added.  Given the data it and looking at just the last 2 years you can see we are getting more #1's and more of those coming from most added.  To me this looks to be a trend that will not end soon, but only time will tell. 

So lets get back into the data of the charts for the week.  This week there were 32 debuts marking another week of downward trend of debuts.  The number one debut is VERY interesting My Bloody Valentine. With no promoter working it, no label, no hard copies we see a very impressive debut at #30. When I saw this number I thought it had to be all big stations but was very surprised to see the stations playing this record run from the biggest to the smallest with well over half of those being in the top 10.    This weeks biggest jump comes from Yellow Red Sparks with a 124 spot jump! The biggest drop comes from Lamps with a 92 spot drop.  Always my most fun, the records running in place we have our top 3 the same as last week in Toro Y Moi, Yo La Tengo and Foxygen and Ducktails running at #7 

Last weeks Poll question asked what you thought the next #1 record would be with half of you voting for Tegan and Sara and the other half Local Natives.  Pretty good guesses.  

This week I wonder if you can guess the band with the most #1 records since 2005.  

Thanks for reading and be sure to follow me on twitter @theanimalarrg   and if there is anything involving college radio you have questions about please ask! 

Sleater-Kinney

The past few weeks I have spent a lot of time listening to The Breeders, Be Your Own Pet, Yeah Yeah Yeahs and various other female fronted bands. They all brought  me back to one of my favorites I have not listened to as much lately and one that 

I am sure not everyone is very familiar with since the last record came out in 2006.  But this week I would love to tackle 

as always from Worst to Best. 

Sleater-Kinney 

Sleater-Kinney

The Hot Rock

Call the Doctor

The Woods 

One Beat 

All Hands on the Bad one  

Dig me Out