It is crazy to think that the Spring is almost over summer is about to take over, but according to my records it looks like we have one or two max reporting weeks left before the floor drops out from under us. The peak seems to be a few weeks ago with close to 330 stations and soon close to 100 stations will disappear.
The records don't stop though. I am not sure if it becomes easier or harder to work a record in the summer. On one hand there are less stations so 50 stations on a record means a lot more in the summer but on the other hand it becomes so much harder to get in touch with stations and getting those 50 becomes so much more of a chore. So I guess there are pros and cons to it. Maybe in the next few weeks we can take a look back what happened this spring.
Lets take a look at what happened this week. Mac Demarco is #1 again and while Cloud Nothings is right there at #2 the gap between the 2 is pretty significant. Real Estate and War on Drugs are both in week 8 and are starting the slow journey down the charts, a journey that if they all follow St. Vincent and Beck could take years to fall off the charts. It is crazy to me that St. Vincent is still so high 10 weeks in. Liars made a nice move into the top 5 after a slow and steady climb. Avey Tare looked to be a contender a week or so ago but stalled this week at #8, while last weeks #1 most added Wye Oak jumped up to #7. When you are not personally working a record you really don't know the thought process going into everything but I would imagine that push of Wye Oak is no mistake as next week we have what could be the last big record of the Spring. Thee Oh Sees.
Seemed like every station I talked to this week was pretty excited about this new record. I know I would push hard to get up there before that record came out thats for sure. Something I wanted to start taking a look at and exploring is How they got there. How does a band make the jump to being a #1 record?
Lets take a look at this weeks #1 Mac Demarco.
According to CMJ the first release he had was Rock and Roll Night Club EP in April of 2012 and it never had any more than 3 stations.
The next release was 2 in October of 2012. This record in its peak week had just under 30 stations and peaked at 48. But it had longevity and was on the chart for over 14 weeks.
After that there are a few singles leading up to the new record. I am sure it is no coincidence that both the last two full records got BNM on Pitchfork and reports of the live show are pretty fantastic. To me it seems like a pretty fast rise to the top of the charts. But lets keep that in mind when we look at the next number ones path to #1 to see how it compares.
Lets continue the conversation on twitter!
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
CMJ ISSUE 1340 WEEK 15
Does history matter at college radio? I know it matters for me both negatively and positively. I can't tell you the number of times I have been hired on a record because I worked them in the past or I worked a band members former project. On the other hand the same goes for the amount of projects I have no chance on because some company 10 years ago worked an EP of the roadie. It cuts both ways and it is frustrating. I mean there are so many of us we all fight over every single record so sometimes to comes down to who has the "history" I can argue both ways. It does matter because I helped build the fan base of band X from 20 to now 200. I can also say well company X reached as high as they can with that, WE are the ones that are passionate about the band give us a chance. There is no right answer, just pointing out how it goes for us. I feel in general history should count for something.
I feel that way for stations too. I think it should matter if a station has helped build a band up over many years that they should celebrate being part of that bands success by continuing to play them. I remember this one really big station a couple years ago decided they were not going to play a band of ours. But they had played EVERY record the band had put out and had been a part of helping to build this band at college radio. The MD said at the time, oh no one here likes them anymore. That usually translates to I don't like them. It was hard because that band was only a few stations away from getting a #1 record. I still blame that station, although there were plenty of stations that did not play the record, and there always are. What also cracks me up is that that station played the NEXT record from them and the reason the NEW MD said they were is because of the history they have with the band! Should history mean you have to play a bands new crappy record if it is in fact a crappy record? No I don't think so but I think history should mean a bit more than it does at some stations.
On to this weeks charts! So apparently you guys like Mac Demarco. Real Estate is knocked out of number one despite having over 30 more stations. Mac had far more #'1s and a lot more core.
Last weeks top ADDS Avey Tare and Afghan Whigs made very different debuts. I don't understand why Afghan Whigs is lagging so far behind at this point. A few months ago I would of bet 200 bucks that it would go #1 no problem, I mean its Afghan Whigs! Now I am not so sure, I think it will do well, top 10 top 5 even but #1 is a long shot. At the same time a few years ago I would of bet several thousand dollars that if the Pixies ever put out a new record it would be #1 for 100 weeks. More on that later, but Afghan Whigs came in at 22 and Avey Tare come in at #12 I would of anticipated the opposite. Will be interesting to watch.
We still have a lot of OLD records clogging up the top 10, 5 of the top 10 have been on the top 200 for 7 weeks or more. St Vincent NINE weeks, Beck 8 weeks. eventually I think radio will tire of these and let some new blood up there. Future Islands is some new blood in the top 10 in week 4 on the charts but every other record in the top 10 was in the top 10 last week.
Adds this week saw Wye Oak coming in at #1 with 130 adds and the Pixies coming in at 95. I know Pitchfork hates the new Pixies so I guess that means radio does too? I would think that Pixies record would get played just on curiosity alone, maybe the EP's hurt the add week? I don't know but I just think everyone would at least check out the new Pixies.
Will either of these challenge for #1? No idea. Our window of consistent charting is closing fast. I heard from a bunch of stations this week already telling me when they are going off for the summer. It looks like we should have another solid month so anything could happen in these 4 weeks. I would not be shocked if Mac Just stayed there forever, but I said that with Real Estate so who knows.
Lets continue the conversation on twitter!
I feel that way for stations too. I think it should matter if a station has helped build a band up over many years that they should celebrate being part of that bands success by continuing to play them. I remember this one really big station a couple years ago decided they were not going to play a band of ours. But they had played EVERY record the band had put out and had been a part of helping to build this band at college radio. The MD said at the time, oh no one here likes them anymore. That usually translates to I don't like them. It was hard because that band was only a few stations away from getting a #1 record. I still blame that station, although there were plenty of stations that did not play the record, and there always are. What also cracks me up is that that station played the NEXT record from them and the reason the NEW MD said they were is because of the history they have with the band! Should history mean you have to play a bands new crappy record if it is in fact a crappy record? No I don't think so but I think history should mean a bit more than it does at some stations.
On to this weeks charts! So apparently you guys like Mac Demarco. Real Estate is knocked out of number one despite having over 30 more stations. Mac had far more #'1s and a lot more core.
Last weeks top ADDS Avey Tare and Afghan Whigs made very different debuts. I don't understand why Afghan Whigs is lagging so far behind at this point. A few months ago I would of bet 200 bucks that it would go #1 no problem, I mean its Afghan Whigs! Now I am not so sure, I think it will do well, top 10 top 5 even but #1 is a long shot. At the same time a few years ago I would of bet several thousand dollars that if the Pixies ever put out a new record it would be #1 for 100 weeks. More on that later, but Afghan Whigs came in at 22 and Avey Tare come in at #12 I would of anticipated the opposite. Will be interesting to watch.
We still have a lot of OLD records clogging up the top 10, 5 of the top 10 have been on the top 200 for 7 weeks or more. St Vincent NINE weeks, Beck 8 weeks. eventually I think radio will tire of these and let some new blood up there. Future Islands is some new blood in the top 10 in week 4 on the charts but every other record in the top 10 was in the top 10 last week.
Adds this week saw Wye Oak coming in at #1 with 130 adds and the Pixies coming in at 95. I know Pitchfork hates the new Pixies so I guess that means radio does too? I would think that Pixies record would get played just on curiosity alone, maybe the EP's hurt the add week? I don't know but I just think everyone would at least check out the new Pixies.
Will either of these challenge for #1? No idea. Our window of consistent charting is closing fast. I heard from a bunch of stations this week already telling me when they are going off for the summer. It looks like we should have another solid month so anything could happen in these 4 weeks. I would not be shocked if Mac Just stayed there forever, but I said that with Real Estate so who knows.
Lets continue the conversation on twitter!
Wednesday, April 09, 2014
CMJ RECAP ISSUE 1339 WEEK 14
It seems like only a few weeks ago that there was real danger of Real Estate not somehow getting to number one. With Beck firmly planted at the top and St. Vincent charging past there was some real worry that they would be blocked out. That all seems very silly to think now with the last 2 weeks being FIRMLY planted at the top. Right now its Real Estate and the next record a good 50 stations behind, that would be War on Drugs at #2. Then last weeks big adds Mac Demarco and Cloud Nothings come in at 4 and 5. Also charging up the charts we have Liars and Tycho.
War on Drugs has steadily moved up the charts over the past few weeks putting itself in a real position to challenge for that #1 spot next week. The window is tight with so many records charging up and with Real Estate seemingly getting stronger. I wanted to take a look at how some of these records could make a move to get to #1 and what would it take. Most of the time this simply centers around gaining more CORE stations.
For those of you that are new to this a CORE station is a bigger station has more influence in the community( allegedly) and therefore has more influence on the chart. 6 is the highest of the CORE stations and there are also 5's and 4's . The rest of the stations are ranked 3, 2 and 1 . The higher the number the more influence the station has on the chart. ( It should be noted these rankings do not impact the ADDS chart at all.)
So normally to get to #1 you simply need more core. In looking at Real Estate vs War on Drugs the Core Seems to be very even with WOD having 62 to Real Estates 60 over all Core. So you would think that they would have an excellent chance at overtaking Real Estate next week. That was until i looked at the Code 3 stations. According to my Database there are 118 code 3 stations that have reported this year, and in any given week that number hovers around the low 90's. This past week Real Estate had 73 of them reporting the record! THATS INSANE That is close to 80% of all code 3's reporting the record! In contrast War on Drugs had a very good 59 of the 3's but man thats a lot of 3's when we are talking about most of these stations having very similar charts.
Now I do doubt that any record will easily approach the 70+ area for 3's but I also don't think that Real Estate will stay up that high, giving hope to those challenging for next week.
Real Estate was an easy call for #1 this past week and I really thought the same was to be said about ADDS. I thought for sure Afghan Whigs would run away with the top ADD spot. It really seemed like most of the day Monday and Tuesday that would be the case but when the charts came out. Avey Tare's Slasher Flicks took the #1 ADD spot by 3 ADDS! I did not see that coming. I was also surprised when they both debuted around the same spot on the chart with Avey Tare being one spot ahead of Afghan Whigs. Could it be like last weeks Cloud Nothings and Mac Demarco? Perhaps. Will be fun to watch.
Should be a fun few weeks to end the spring! What records do you think end up at #1? Let's talk about it on twitter @theanimalarrg.
Thanks for reading!
Douglas
War on Drugs has steadily moved up the charts over the past few weeks putting itself in a real position to challenge for that #1 spot next week. The window is tight with so many records charging up and with Real Estate seemingly getting stronger. I wanted to take a look at how some of these records could make a move to get to #1 and what would it take. Most of the time this simply centers around gaining more CORE stations.
For those of you that are new to this a CORE station is a bigger station has more influence in the community( allegedly) and therefore has more influence on the chart. 6 is the highest of the CORE stations and there are also 5's and 4's . The rest of the stations are ranked 3, 2 and 1 . The higher the number the more influence the station has on the chart. ( It should be noted these rankings do not impact the ADDS chart at all.)
So normally to get to #1 you simply need more core. In looking at Real Estate vs War on Drugs the Core Seems to be very even with WOD having 62 to Real Estates 60 over all Core. So you would think that they would have an excellent chance at overtaking Real Estate next week. That was until i looked at the Code 3 stations. According to my Database there are 118 code 3 stations that have reported this year, and in any given week that number hovers around the low 90's. This past week Real Estate had 73 of them reporting the record! THATS INSANE That is close to 80% of all code 3's reporting the record! In contrast War on Drugs had a very good 59 of the 3's but man thats a lot of 3's when we are talking about most of these stations having very similar charts.
Now I do doubt that any record will easily approach the 70+ area for 3's but I also don't think that Real Estate will stay up that high, giving hope to those challenging for next week.
Real Estate was an easy call for #1 this past week and I really thought the same was to be said about ADDS. I thought for sure Afghan Whigs would run away with the top ADD spot. It really seemed like most of the day Monday and Tuesday that would be the case but when the charts came out. Avey Tare's Slasher Flicks took the #1 ADD spot by 3 ADDS! I did not see that coming. I was also surprised when they both debuted around the same spot on the chart with Avey Tare being one spot ahead of Afghan Whigs. Could it be like last weeks Cloud Nothings and Mac Demarco? Perhaps. Will be fun to watch.
Should be a fun few weeks to end the spring! What records do you think end up at #1? Let's talk about it on twitter @theanimalarrg.
Thanks for reading!
Douglas
Wednesday, April 02, 2014
CMJ RECAP ISSUE 1338 WEEK 13
I really do wish April Fools day was on Wednesday so I could of participated. Maybe next year I can get in on the fun.
This week Real Estate powered on past St. Vincent and took over the #1 spot on the charts. In looking at the numbers last week I thought they should of been #1 last week, but no one remembers how you got to #1 or if it was a week late it only matters that you got there somehow, someway.
I was looking at the numbers trying to see what could be the next #1 after Real Estate and it really is anyones game. Or no ones game yet really. The gap between Real Estate and St. Vincent is around 20 stations but the gap between St. Vincent and #3 War on Drugs is almost 70 stations! So I doubt we see War on Drugs at #1 next week. War on Drugs is powered mostly by bigger stations but they lack the volume needed to get to #1 at this point. They impressively moved past Beck even though they have 20 less stations so I won't count them out. Black Lips seem to have peaked at #4 last week and are the only other record with over 150 stations.
Things get weird after Black Lips. The drop off is HUGE Perfect Pussy comes in at #6 with just above 95 stations. If you pick any record from 6-21 they are within a few stations of each other. Tokyo Police club comes in at one less station than Perfect Pussy While Tycho at #14 comes in at just around 80 stations and last weeks #1 most added Liars comes in at #17 with just over 90 stations. The parity between stations has gotten to the point that most stations are playing the same records and so that its a few stations that hold the key to moving up the chart faster.
So I decided to take a look at how true that was and pick two random stations to compare.
Station one:
Station two:
Now lets eliminate every record that appears on both charts and see what we are left with.
Station two:
This week Real Estate powered on past St. Vincent and took over the #1 spot on the charts. In looking at the numbers last week I thought they should of been #1 last week, but no one remembers how you got to #1 or if it was a week late it only matters that you got there somehow, someway.
I was looking at the numbers trying to see what could be the next #1 after Real Estate and it really is anyones game. Or no ones game yet really. The gap between Real Estate and St. Vincent is around 20 stations but the gap between St. Vincent and #3 War on Drugs is almost 70 stations! So I doubt we see War on Drugs at #1 next week. War on Drugs is powered mostly by bigger stations but they lack the volume needed to get to #1 at this point. They impressively moved past Beck even though they have 20 less stations so I won't count them out. Black Lips seem to have peaked at #4 last week and are the only other record with over 150 stations.
Things get weird after Black Lips. The drop off is HUGE Perfect Pussy comes in at #6 with just above 95 stations. If you pick any record from 6-21 they are within a few stations of each other. Tokyo Police club comes in at one less station than Perfect Pussy While Tycho at #14 comes in at just around 80 stations and last weeks #1 most added Liars comes in at #17 with just over 90 stations. The parity between stations has gotten to the point that most stations are playing the same records and so that its a few stations that hold the key to moving up the chart faster.
So I decided to take a look at how true that was and pick two random stations to compare.
Station one:
| 1. REAL ESTATE Atlas |
| 2. ST. VINCENT St. Vincent |
| 3. NATURAL CHILD Dancin' With Wolves |
| 4. BLACK LIPS Underneath The Rainbow |
| 5. MARK MCGUIRE Along The Way |
| 6. THE MEN Tomorrow's Hits |
| 7. FOSTER THE PEOPLE Supermodel |
| 8. WAR ON DRUGS Lost In The Dream |
| 9. SAINTSENECA Dark Arc |
| 10. CHRIS MILLS AND THE DISTANT STARS Alexandria |
| 11. ETERNAL SUMMERS The Drop Beneath |
| 12. AGES AND AGES Divisionary |
| 13. MARCHING BAND So Much Imagine |
| 14. WILLIAM FITZSIMMONS Lions |
| 15. TACOCAT NVM |
| 16. BEND SINISTER Animals |
| 17. TOKYO POLICE CLUB Forcefield |
| 18. SKATERS Manhattan |
| 19. WALKING SHAPES Taka Come On |
| 20. COATHANGERS Suck My Shirt |
| 21. KEVIN DREW Darlings |
| 22. PERFECT PUSSY Say Yes To Love |
| 23. DRIVE-BY TRUCKERS English Oceans |
| 24. NIGHT TERRORS OF 1927 Guilty Pleas [EP] |
| 25. ST. PAUL AND THE BROKEN BONES Half The City |
| 26. SISYPHUS Sisyphus |
| 27. METRONOMY Love Letters |
| 28. TYCHO Awake |
| 29. TRAUMAHELIKOPTER I Don't Understand Them At All |
| 30. BELLE BRIGADE Just Because |
| ST. VINCENT St. Vincent |
| 2. CARSICK CARS 3 |
| 3. SPEEDY ORTIZ Real Hair [EP] |
| 4. SKATERS Manhattan |
| 5. REAL ESTATE Atlas |
| 6. TOGETHER PANGEA Badillac |
| 7. MOZES AND THE FIRSTBORN Mozes And The Firstborn |
| 8. HABIBI Habibi |
| 9. EAGULLS Eagulls |
| 10. WALKING SHAPES Taka Come On |
| 11. DUM DUM GIRLS Too True |
| 12. PHANTOGRAM Voices |
| 13. TYCHO Awake |
| 14. SAINTSENECA Dark Arc |
| 15. ANGEL OLSEN Burn Your Fire For No Witness |
| 16. BLEEDING RAINBOW Interrupt |
| 17. TOKYO POLICE CLUB Forcefield |
| 18. NATURAL CHILD Dancin' With Wolves |
| 19. NOTWIST Close To The Glass |
| 20. PAINTED PALMS Forever |
| 21. MARISSA NADLER July |
| 22. CHERRY GLAZERR Haxel Princess |
| 23. BLACK LIPS Underneath The Rainbow |
| 24. BEATY HEART Mixed Feelings |
| 25. HONEYMILK Lean On The Sun |
| 26. TACOCAT NVM |
| 27. COATHANGERS Suck My Shirt |
| 28. WAR ON DRUGS Lost In The Dream |
| 29. CREATIVE ADULT Psychic Mess |
| 30. THE MEN Tomorrow's Hits |
Now lets eliminate every record that appears on both charts and see what we are left with.
| 5. MARK MCGUIRE Along The Way |
| 7. FOSTER THE PEOPLE Supermodel |
| 10. CHRIS MILLS AND THE DISTANT STARS Alexandria |
| 11. ETERNAL SUMMERS The Drop Beneath |
| 12. AGES AND AGES Divisionary |
| 13. MARCHING BAND So Much Imagine |
| 14. WILLIAM FITZSIMMONS Lions |
| 16. BEND SINISTER Animals |
| 21. KEVIN DREW Darlings |
| 22. PERFECT PUSSY Say Yes To Love |
| 23. DRIVE-BY TRUCKERS English Oceans |
| 24. NIGHT TERRORS OF 1927 Guilty Pleas [EP] |
| 25. ST. PAUL AND THE BROKEN BONES Half The City |
| 26. SISYPHUS Sisyphus |
| 27. METRONOMY Love Letters |
| 29. TRAUMAHELIKOPTER I Don't Understand Them At All |
| 30. BELLE BRIGADE Just Because |
| 2. CARSICK CARS 3 |
| 3. SPEEDY ORTIZ Real Hair [EP] |
| 6. TOGETHER PANGEA Badillac |
| 7. MOZES AND THE FIRSTBORN Mozes And The Firstborn |
| 8. HABIBI Habibi |
| 9. EAGULLS Eagulls |
| 11. DUM DUM GIRLS Too True |
| 12. PHANTOGRAM Voices |
| 15. ANGEL OLSEN Burn Your Fire For No Witness |
| 16. BLEEDING RAINBOW Interrupt |
| 19. NOTWIST Close To The Glass |
| 20. PAINTED PALMS Forever |
| 21. MARISSA NADLER July |
| 22. CHERRY GLAZERR Haxel Princess |
| 24. BEATY HEART Mixed Feelings |
| 25. HONEYMILK Lean On The Sun |
| 29. CREATIVE ADULT Psychic Mess So in the end we had 13 records that were the same, I was expecting a few more and I imagine if I were do to the comparison a few more times the average would be closer to 17 of the same records. The point is that for the most part everyones chart looks about the same these days and it has become easier to obtain a top 10 record. I don't want to say easy I guess but when a record at #6 has the same amount of stations as #21 then where is the value of a top ten? So what will be happening next? Well it looks like Real Estate should easily hold on to #1 for another week and I Imagine War on Drugs will take #2 next week and at that point the gap should be less than 70 so they could go for #1 then. Perfect Pussy I don't see going much higher than top 5 if anything and last weeks adds Tycho and Liars, Future Islands and Toyko Police club all look about the same right now and its hard to see what one will step out above the rest. This weeks ADD race came down to Mac Demarco and Cloud Nothings. Cloud nothings had the 2 indies going for it and they were able to pull away and take #1 most added. Mac kept it close thought as they were very creative and had Mac himself calling stations on ADD day. Love to see that kind of creativity that I can steal for myself. But in the end the power of two indies won out. Hold Steady took #3 most added being the only other record with 100 adds. Mac Demarco has the early edge on the charts already coming in at #70 and Cloud nothings is close behind at #87. Should be interesting to see what type of logjam there is next week with all of last weeks ADDS and this weeks adds all pushing for the top of the charts. Lets continue this conversation on the twitter@theanimalarrg |
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
CMJ ISSUE 1337 WEEK 12
Hello everyone from lovely New York City. Everything so far is great, however I am still getting used to being back on east coast time.
These next few week should prove to be very exciting. According to the past few years we have the next six weeks of increased reporters before a big drop off. So these next six weeks should be very exciting, as if they have not been exciting already.
This week was a fantastic race. We had Beck #1 for the last few weeks but a charging St. Vincent and Real Estate. So there was always a chance Beck could hold on but with War on Drugs, Black Lips and Liars all going for adds over the past few weeks the window for both St. Vincent and Real Estate was closing fast. So why not put everything you could into this week.
To be honest when the charts closed today I really thought it was going to be Real Estate. They had more stations. And everything else was equal. I don't have the formulas to determine how a #1 gets there but it had to of been close. Real Estate had more of pretty much every size station. Somehow though St. Vincent ends up at #1. I really did think it was close but it was still somewhat of a surprise.
So now we have 6 weeks before stations stop paying attention because of "exams" and that sort of thing and we really could see a new number one each week. I would not be shocked if St. Vincent held it for only one week before Real Estate took over and then I would not be shocked to see Black lips or War on Drugs take it as both are charing up the charts.
The strength of War on Drugs and Black Lips though is significantly less than that of St. Vincent and Real Estate I think. It does not mean they cannot get to #1 but I just wonder if there is a correlation to the number of stations reporting a record the week after the add week and its path to #1. Beck, St, Vincent and and Real Estate all showed up on the charts the next week with in excess of 160 stations. This week we only saw around 130 stations with War on Drugs and the same with Black lips the week before. Perhaps there is a magic number to look for in the week after ADDS to predict at #1 record. It will take more research for sure but something worth looking it.
Liars took #1 most added pretty easily this week and is also a contender for #1 the next few weeks.
The last liars record went to #3 but was only #2 most added so this has to bode somewhat well for the record. I do think it will depend on how many stations jump onboard the first week. Again I am not positive of this 160 week after add number but it should be something to keep an eye on from now on.
So what do you think will happen for #1's ?
We have
Real Estate
Black Lips
charting up
with St. Vincent just getting in there.
you think all three get to #1? or you think St. Vincent holds?
I think we have a bunch of new number ones for the next few weeks.
Let's talk about it on twitter @theanimalarrg
These next few week should prove to be very exciting. According to the past few years we have the next six weeks of increased reporters before a big drop off. So these next six weeks should be very exciting, as if they have not been exciting already.
This week was a fantastic race. We had Beck #1 for the last few weeks but a charging St. Vincent and Real Estate. So there was always a chance Beck could hold on but with War on Drugs, Black Lips and Liars all going for adds over the past few weeks the window for both St. Vincent and Real Estate was closing fast. So why not put everything you could into this week.
To be honest when the charts closed today I really thought it was going to be Real Estate. They had more stations. And everything else was equal. I don't have the formulas to determine how a #1 gets there but it had to of been close. Real Estate had more of pretty much every size station. Somehow though St. Vincent ends up at #1. I really did think it was close but it was still somewhat of a surprise.
So now we have 6 weeks before stations stop paying attention because of "exams" and that sort of thing and we really could see a new number one each week. I would not be shocked if St. Vincent held it for only one week before Real Estate took over and then I would not be shocked to see Black lips or War on Drugs take it as both are charing up the charts.
The strength of War on Drugs and Black Lips though is significantly less than that of St. Vincent and Real Estate I think. It does not mean they cannot get to #1 but I just wonder if there is a correlation to the number of stations reporting a record the week after the add week and its path to #1. Beck, St, Vincent and and Real Estate all showed up on the charts the next week with in excess of 160 stations. This week we only saw around 130 stations with War on Drugs and the same with Black lips the week before. Perhaps there is a magic number to look for in the week after ADDS to predict at #1 record. It will take more research for sure but something worth looking it.
Liars took #1 most added pretty easily this week and is also a contender for #1 the next few weeks.
The last liars record went to #3 but was only #2 most added so this has to bode somewhat well for the record. I do think it will depend on how many stations jump onboard the first week. Again I am not positive of this 160 week after add number but it should be something to keep an eye on from now on.
So what do you think will happen for #1's ?
We have
Real Estate
Black Lips
charting up
with St. Vincent just getting in there.
you think all three get to #1? or you think St. Vincent holds?
I think we have a bunch of new number ones for the next few weeks.
Let's talk about it on twitter @theanimalarrg
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
CMJ ISSUE 1336 Week 11
I really don't know how much time I have to write this but there is so much going on that I wanted to talk about so lets see how much I can get to.
For whatever reason I started to doubt my thoughts on Beck. However you can never understate the power of comfort, or familiarity. Beck might not be the coolest or even the best record out right now but EVERYONE knows who he is. Where as some of these other records A LOT of people know who they are but A LOT is not EVERYONE. And this is the perfect time of year to have people not care how good your record is and just know who you are. ( not saying the Beck record is bad but I have a feeling Beck is being powered by mostly familiarity.) It's spring break, its SXSW it's midterms its " I have too many records"
So Beck continues at #1. But man are there a lot of contenders on the way / HERE
St. Vincent and Real Estate are pretty much deadlocked at 2 and 3. Could be fun to watch them joust back and forth for a while as Beck just hangs out. Lets welcome Black lips to the party as jump into the top 5. They are still a bit aways from 2 or 3.
Our number one ADD from last week was Elbow and they come in as the #1 debut at #34. Elbow will go as far as AAA takes them as a lot of college kids will be like who?
This weeks #1 ADD was War on Drugs and while I thought it would be a battle between them and Perfect Pussy... well it was not. It would be interesting to look at if records did better for those companies that had more people at home than at SXSW. Sadly I am moving and don't have the time. But the records I glanced at seem to suggest that it had no effect either way.
War on Drugs looks like it could contend and while Perfect Pussy might challenge the top 10 or squeeze out a top five I doubt they seriously challenge for #1.
That is all I have time for sadly as they are packing up my cable now...
until next time where I will be in lovely New York City!
Follow me on twitter @theanimalarrg to discuss the charts or to hear me complain about Time Warner and how bad they are at what they do.
For whatever reason I started to doubt my thoughts on Beck. However you can never understate the power of comfort, or familiarity. Beck might not be the coolest or even the best record out right now but EVERYONE knows who he is. Where as some of these other records A LOT of people know who they are but A LOT is not EVERYONE. And this is the perfect time of year to have people not care how good your record is and just know who you are. ( not saying the Beck record is bad but I have a feeling Beck is being powered by mostly familiarity.) It's spring break, its SXSW it's midterms its " I have too many records"
So Beck continues at #1. But man are there a lot of contenders on the way / HERE
St. Vincent and Real Estate are pretty much deadlocked at 2 and 3. Could be fun to watch them joust back and forth for a while as Beck just hangs out. Lets welcome Black lips to the party as jump into the top 5. They are still a bit aways from 2 or 3.
Our number one ADD from last week was Elbow and they come in as the #1 debut at #34. Elbow will go as far as AAA takes them as a lot of college kids will be like who?
This weeks #1 ADD was War on Drugs and while I thought it would be a battle between them and Perfect Pussy... well it was not. It would be interesting to look at if records did better for those companies that had more people at home than at SXSW. Sadly I am moving and don't have the time. But the records I glanced at seem to suggest that it had no effect either way.
War on Drugs looks like it could contend and while Perfect Pussy might challenge the top 10 or squeeze out a top five I doubt they seriously challenge for #1.
That is all I have time for sadly as they are packing up my cable now...
until next time where I will be in lovely New York City!
Follow me on twitter @theanimalarrg to discuss the charts or to hear me complain about Time Warner and how bad they are at what they do.
Wednesday, March 05, 2014
CMJ RECAP ISSUE 1334 WEEK 9
Remember a few weeks ago when Broken Bells looked like it would float its way up to #1. Or even sooner ago when Beck looked like it would be one of the easiest #1 records of the year. But no #1 record is ever easy. Unless of course you are Dum Dum Girls apparently. I wish I could say it was close but it was no where near close. There were less stations reporting this week so the number of stations reporting Dum Dum Girls dropped but the percentage of stations only went down by a little bit. Last week 67% of all stations charted Dum Dum Girls and this week there were 64% of stations.
I don't want to say Beck had a bad week or does not have a chance at #1, because he does. But the window is down to one week. I see no scenario where Beck gets #1 later than next week. The reason is simply the HUGE adds we had this week. Real Estate looks like what I thought Beck would look like. Almost 200 ADDS!! These days its pretty rare to get that many ADDS. #2 most added St. Vincent had 185 ADDS and that would of been amazing any other week, THEN we had Black lips that had 129 adds and that would of been #1 most added Last week, the week before, the week before that, Black Lips would of been #1 in 5 of the 9 weeks so far this year.
So what happens now?
We have Dum Dum Girls with 64% of the stations and with a pretty nice lead on #2.
#2 BECK made an awesome jump from #42 to #2. I have to wonder if any record has jumped to #2 in its first push week on the chart and failed to make #1? I have to think that does not happen very often if ever.
#3 Broken Bells window is closed.
#7 Phantogram jumping from #65 is pretty impressive so soon but I just think they will get jumped this next week.
I would not be shocked if Beck, Dum Dum Girls, St. Vincent or Real Estate were #1 next week. Any of them. Each of them have their reasons to go for it. If I am pushing Beck I see what went for adds this week and think my window to get to #1 is THIS WEEK so I put everything I have into this.
If I am pushing Dum Dum Girls I am thinking why not keep pushing and get an early start on #1 for the year and keep the others out until I have something else I can get in there.
If I am Real Estate or St. Vincent I am thinking once one of the 2 get to #1 it is going to be hard to boot the other one out.
Should be exciting to watch. I think Beck does it. However if not then it really could be anyone.
So who is going to be in Texas next week? I will! We should hang out if so be sure to touch base on the twitter @theanimalarrg
There will be no recap next week due to SXSW or the week after due to me moving to NYC ( well if something exciting happens I might try to write SOMETHING )
Thank you for reading!
Douglas
I don't want to say Beck had a bad week or does not have a chance at #1, because he does. But the window is down to one week. I see no scenario where Beck gets #1 later than next week. The reason is simply the HUGE adds we had this week. Real Estate looks like what I thought Beck would look like. Almost 200 ADDS!! These days its pretty rare to get that many ADDS. #2 most added St. Vincent had 185 ADDS and that would of been amazing any other week, THEN we had Black lips that had 129 adds and that would of been #1 most added Last week, the week before, the week before that, Black Lips would of been #1 in 5 of the 9 weeks so far this year.
So what happens now?
We have Dum Dum Girls with 64% of the stations and with a pretty nice lead on #2.
#2 BECK made an awesome jump from #42 to #2. I have to wonder if any record has jumped to #2 in its first push week on the chart and failed to make #1? I have to think that does not happen very often if ever.
#3 Broken Bells window is closed.
#7 Phantogram jumping from #65 is pretty impressive so soon but I just think they will get jumped this next week.
I would not be shocked if Beck, Dum Dum Girls, St. Vincent or Real Estate were #1 next week. Any of them. Each of them have their reasons to go for it. If I am pushing Beck I see what went for adds this week and think my window to get to #1 is THIS WEEK so I put everything I have into this.
If I am pushing Dum Dum Girls I am thinking why not keep pushing and get an early start on #1 for the year and keep the others out until I have something else I can get in there.
If I am Real Estate or St. Vincent I am thinking once one of the 2 get to #1 it is going to be hard to boot the other one out.
Should be exciting to watch. I think Beck does it. However if not then it really could be anyone.
So who is going to be in Texas next week? I will! We should hang out if so be sure to touch base on the twitter @theanimalarrg
There will be no recap next week due to SXSW or the week after due to me moving to NYC ( well if something exciting happens I might try to write SOMETHING )
Thank you for reading!
Douglas
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