CMJ ISSUE 1387 WEEK 14 RECAP

Well that should be it, the end of all the spring breaks. I thought perhaps we would see a slight dip this week but I was hopeful that all the breaks were over. They were not, now though I think we should be ok throughout the rest of April and until the exams start sometime in May. Between now and then though things should be a lot of fun. I mean they really have already been fun. Last week with the tight race between Dan Deacon and Father John Misty and this week between everyone in the top 5.

Dan Deacon took the top spot this week and I am pretty surprised. I though for sure Modest Mouse would make the jump from 5 to 1 but they only jumped up to 3. The biggest surprise this week for me was Courtney Barnett. They went for it. Going all the way from 9 to 2.  Purity Ring I feel was the one hurt most by this week as they fall from #3 to #4. Sufjan Stevens rounds out the top five jumping from #32 and I have to imagine all five of these records will be pushing for #1.

Now with Modest Mouse not making that jump this week you have to wonder if they are in any danger. College radio can turn on artists in a blink of an eye and with there being so much positive press on Courtney Barnett ( that I have seen) and lukewarm press for juggernaut Modest Mouse perhaps the window for them was smaller than I thought.  Then what to do with Purity ring? They went for ADDS 5 weeks ago so are getting a bit up there in college age.

How about we take a look at all the adds from 5 weeks ago and see how they are fairing in comparison to Purity Ring? That might give us some idea as to if the window is closing or now.

TW	TA	Artist	Current chart #	Peak
1	150	PURITY RING	4	3
2	134	OF MONTREAL	9	6
3	111	MATTHEW E. WHITE	15	6
4	81	YOUNG BUFFALO	21	16
5	52	LADY LAMB THE BEEKEEPER	24	15
6	51	MOON DUO	28	20
7	50	TUXEDO	36	23
8	42	MOTHER MOTHER	67	51
9	36	TOM BROSSEAU	86	73
10	27	GO BETTY GO	135	108
11	26	SUMMER CANNIBALS	48	48
12	25	CLARENCE CLARITY	118	93
13	24	EULA	113	53
14	21	YOUNG GUV	not charting	98
15	20	SANDRA KOLSTAD	151	83
16	20	SUNFLOWER BEAN	76	60
17	19	PRINZE GEORGE	109	109
18	18	IN THE WHALE	138	138
19	17	JOE HERTLER AND THE RAINBOW SEEKERS	143	105
20	15	ELEL	not charting	173

So many things stand out to me here. 

First you see that all but 2 records are in decline and strangely enough those 2 records are both steady so they may as well be in decline. 

I also find it very interesting that every record that made it on the ADDS list charted. It would take some time to look up every record went for adds that week, but it would be cool to see how many of those made the charts.  Also we have talked for sometime on twitter  about ADDS and if they matter or not.  But looking at this list you see a clear trend, with a few exceptions that the ones that got highest added ended up highest on the chart. I have always thought ADDS are a good way of prediction how well a record might do and this shows that might be the case. I plan on getting more in depth on this in the future to see how strong that pattern is. 

Speaking of ADDS this weeks top add was Waxahatchee, edging out Toro Y Moi. I thought for sure Toro Y Moi would of taken #1 considering the last record was #1 for 3 weeks and Waxahatchee had never taken #1 most added. But as I mentioned college radio changes their mind on records rather quickly. But before we put too much meaning on it they did only lose by 9 adds. 

Something else I will be taking a closer look at in the future is if charting on the debut week means anything. For now lets take a brief look at it, focusing on the top five adds. 

1	130	WAXAHATCHEE	#127
2	121	TORO Y MOI	#124
3	98	LAURA MARLING	#111
4	71	MATT AND KIM	#115
5	68	AMERICAN WRESTLERS	No debut

They are all tightly bundled but interesting to see that #3 most added Laura Marling has the highest debut at #111 and even #4 most added Matt and Kim beats both the top ADDS. Remember last week though Sufjan Stevens was the #1 most added but had a huge debut at #32. The week before Modest Mouse had the huge debut at #35 ( although they had a single to set up the record and you have to wonder if that is causing any slow down on their part currently)  There is something to be said about having a huge debut on the ADD week. I don't think having a small or no debut stops you from getting #1 in the future but you have to think going from #32 to #1 is easier than going from #127 to #1. 

Feel free to leave some questions in the comments just let me know about them on Twitter so I can check them out. Or just ask on twitter. Thank you for reading!