CMJ ISSUE 1355 WEEK 30

Crazy that it's the last week of July already.  You would think that would mean only about 4 or so weeks until everyone comes back but its closer to 7 weeks. So 7 more weeks of slowness. I don't know about you but I am counting down for sure.

Jack White continues this weird run at #1. White lung is the first to drop out of the race to be next in line at #1. A Sunny Day in Glasgow runs in place, Parquet courts finally starts to fall and Antlers makes a move to rejoin the push for #1.

Alvvays, last weeks #1 most added comes in at a very impressive #7. Morrissey moves into the top 10 at #9.

Nothing really shocked me in the top of the charts. Jack White is the name people know and his run at #1 is not unexpected. I think if this were the fall there would be a lot more turn over in the top 5 but as we have seen things are moving rather slowly at the top, unless you are a big name.

This weeks ADDS were very interesting to me. I thought for sure Jenny Lewis would be #1 most added, but Bear in Heaven is on Dead Oceans and they arguably have the best in house team and when you combine that with an indie, in this case Team Clermont, it can lead to better than expected results.  I am not sure what this means for the charts as Jenny Lewis has a low debut already and I would guess Bear in Heaven will have a similar first week as Alvvays had this week.  

I was talking to a station yesterday and was telling him about our push for #1 and he wanted to know how every company can have a record they are pushing for #1 and if all of these companies seriously think they are going to get #1. I thought it was an interesting question. For me I don't really consider pushing a record for #1 unless I think we have a legit shot. That usually means we are in the top 5 or have debuted very high and there is another big record behind us.
 It also depends on what else I am working. We try not to compete against ourselves because often times you end up with a bunch of records hanging out in the top 5. While in the long run you can look back and say hey top 5 thats great. In the moment having none of them get to #1 really sucks.   Sometimes you can get multiple records #1 though, and those records are usually the "biggest" or "best" records out there. Take for example the Jack White, Parquet Courts tandem.  You could make the argument that these 2 records are the biggest two records at college radio and they happen to be worked by the same company and timed out perfectly.  
Sometimes you push for #1 just to get a record into the top 5 or to make sure that record has a really good week by making it the focus of your calls and emails. Usually this has success and gives the record a boost.
Another point about pushing a record for #1 is that it often takes a few weeks to get that message to everyone. Especially in the Summer and Winter. So you will see a company say "Going for #1" for a few weeks in a row until they get that goal or until the record starts to slide down.

In looking at the charts right now I could see 4 or 5 different records being pushed for #1.

1	1	2	1	9	JACK WHITE	Lazaretto	Third Man
2	4	6	2	5	HOW TO DRESS WELL	What Is This Heart?	Weird World
3	2	1	1	9	PARQUET COURTS	Sunbathing Animal	What’s Your Rupture?
4	6	5	4	6	ANTLERS	Familiars	Anti
5	5	4	4	5	A SUNNY DAY IN GLASGOW	Sea When Absent	Lefse
6	3	3	3	6	WHITE LUNG	Deep Fantasy	Domino
7	-	-	7	1	ALVVAYS	Alvvays	Polyvinyl
8	9	20	8	3	BRAID	No Coast	Topshelf
9	16	-	9	2	MORRISSEY	World Peace Is None Of Your Business	Harvest
10	-	-	10	1	WHITE FENCE	For The Recently Found Innocent	Drag City

What do you think? 

I say that many because of what is coming. We have Jenny Lewis and Bear in Heaven on the way. Both of those could jump into the top 10 next week.  But the record I fear goes for adds next week and thats the new Spoon.  

Spoon could charge up there faster than the Black Keys did. I would not be surprised if in the ADD week the record "debuts" in the top 20.  If they wanted to I am sure they could try and go #1 on the ADD week. I mean it has to happen some day right?  I think this record will be a monster on the charts.  Just look at what the singles are doing 

152	188	-	152	2	SPOON	"Do You" [Single]	Loma Vista
153	98	112	98	5	SPOON	"Rent I Pay" [Single]	Loma Vista

2 singles charting in the top 200. Thats crazy.    What do you guys think will happen? 

Does someone else get #1 before Spoon? If so who?  Lets continue the conversation on twitter! 

CMJ ISSUE 1354 WEEK 29

What a weird summer.  It is almost like no one else wants to get #1 so we are stuck with Jack White and Parquet Courts trading #1's back and forth. Every week they lose some stations and come closer to the rest of the pack but the rest of the pack struggles to get up to that level.  

So here is what we are looking at.

1	2	1	1	8	JACK WHITE	Lazaretto	Third Man
2	1	2	1	8	PARQUET COURTS	Sunbathing Animal	What’s Your Rupture?
3	3	4	3	5	WHITE LUNG	Deep Fantasy	Domino
4	6	12	4	4	HOW TO DRESS WELL	What Is This Heart?	Weird World
5	4	7	4	4	A SUNNY DAY IN GLASGOW	Sea When Absent	Lefse
6	5	6	5	5	ANTLERS	Familiars	Anti
7	7	3	1	10	BLACK KEYS	Turn Blue	Nonesuch
8	25	-	8	2	LULUC	Passerby	SUB POP
9	20	-	9	2	BRAID	No Coast	Topshelf

The only record that does not have a chance to go #1 right now out of these is Black Keys because they already started the fall. I would think Parquet Courts and Jack White have to be close to falling out and looking at the numbers the gap is only about 10 stations.  

It is very interesting to see so many records bundled up with each of them having a legit chance for #1. As the number of stations decreases overall the number of stations it takes to make a difference for a record gets smaller as well.  If White Lung, for example had one less CORE station they could easily be #6.  If How to Dress Well had one more big CORE they could easily be #2.  

It will be interesting to see.  Perhaps if stations stopped playing really old records one of these newer ones would rise above the fray. 

69

63

51

1

17

MAC DEMARCO

Salad Days

Captured Tracks

113

73

104

2

19

CLOUD NOTHINGS

Here And Nowhere Else

Carpark-Mom And Pop

125

124

80

2

21

WAR ON DRUGS

Lost In The Dream

Secretly Canadian

127

93

60

1

15

WYE OAK

Shriek

Merg

145

145

89

1

23

ST. VINCENT

St. Vincent

Loma Vista

163

125

91

1

21

REAL ESTATE

Atlas

Domino

I made the cutoff 15 weeks, but you could make an argument that 12 weeks on a chart is excessive. Thats 3 months! Of course stations can play whatever they want for as long as they want but if more of an emphasis was put on rotating in newer music maybe we would have a clearer vision of what the best records were. 

Lets talk on the twitter! 

CMJ RECAP 1353 WEEK 28

This morning I got a little excited when I saw a back to school commercial on TV.  So we have to be close right?! Not so much. I looked up chart trends since 2005 and the uptick in stations does not begin until week 37. So we have some time. I also noticed that in past years there was a big uptick around week 27-29 so maybe there will be some stations that come back? In the past it has jumped from 220 up to 240 so that would be pretty nice if that were to happen but something about this year seems like finding an additional 20 stations will be highly unlikely.

One of the reasons I was looking through my records since 2005 was that Parquet Courts returned to #1.  I cannot remember a record ever losing the #1 spot only to come back and reclaim it.  It seems unlikely that it has NEVER happened but perhaps this was the first time.    Most of the time when a promotion company loses the #1 spot they do not try to get it back there is the simplest reason why this seemingly has never happened.  Also the charts mostly have a natural flow to them where as one record rises another one falls.  I am sure there are other reasons but having never seen it happen it is pretty crazy to me.

There are currently have 4 other records waiting in the wings that all have pretty good shots at going #1.  All within a week of each other as well. White Lung, A Sunny Day in Glasgow, Antlers and How to Dress well.  Antlers and White Lung have a slight advantage in the number of stations while A Sunny Day in Glasgow and How to Dress well are both a week younger.  The hard part at this point is closing that gap between Parquet courts and Jack White.  Currently this stands at around 20 stations.

I don't imagine either Parquet Courts or Jack White gaining more stations to go above 120 so its just a matter of one of those records can make that jump. In the Fall or spring I would say sure but right now the charts seem on cruise control and no one is really breaking away from the pack. We will see what happens.

This weeks #1 most added record was Morrissey with only 77 ADDS.   Last weeks #1 most added Luluc had 96 adds and debuted at 25 so It will be interesting to see where Morrissey comes in. I would guess higher and say its powered by the AAA stations.

Something else that might affect this week is the Pitchfork festival. Of the stations I am able to get ahold of this summer I would guess at least 40% of them are headed to Chicago this week! Makes me think I should of bought tickets!

Let's talk about all this on the twitter

CMJ ISSUE 1352 WEEK 27

It has been a while since we have looked at the chart in relation to the pitchfork Score. So lets take a look and see what that might tell us about the next few weeks.  I will also include the consequence of sound rating too

TW	LW	2W	PK	WKS	Artist	Pitchfork	Concequence of Sound
1	2	4	1	6	JACK WHITE	7.1	B-
2	1	1	1	6	PARQUET COURTS	8.6	B-
3	3	2	1	8	BLACK KEYS	5.8	B+
4	7	16	4	3	WHITE LUNG	8.6	B
5	4	5	4	5	ORWELLS	6.2	B
6	6	14	6	3	ANTLERS	7.8	B+
7	19	-	7	2	A SUNNY DAY IN GLASGOW	8.5	B-
8	8	8	8	5	BOB MOULD	7.3	B-
9	5	3	2	8	CONOR OBERST	6.5	B
10	9	13	9	7	OWEN PALLETT	8.0	A-

Well I am not sure this tells us much of anything really. As the lowest rated record on here via Pitchfork, The Black Keys went #1 and the highest rated via consequence of sound, Owen Pallet, has no chase of going #1.  So not much to take away from this but it is always fun to look at and interesting to see the difference between the two websites. 

Out of the top 10 though it looks like we have three potential records that could charge for #1. 

Antlers

A Sunny Day in Glasgow 

and White lung.  

What I find fun about these 3 records all going for #1 is that they are all being worked by different companies.  White Lung is AAM.  A Sunny Day in Glasgow is Terrorbird and the curveball is Antlers is Pirate and AAM.  So we have the opportunity to see the difference between a single indie working a record and two indies.  There are of course other factors. The type of record, each bands history at radio, how many copies were sent out.   

So what will the charts look like the next couple weeks?  I think Jack White holds at #1 for another week at the least and then we will have a real showdown between these three.  This time of year since it is so hard to get in touch with stations on a regular basis plus the fact that you have no idea what stations will be reporting on a regular basis makes it harder for newer bands to make that run to #1 and makes it easier for an artist like Jack White to hold on to #1. 

So what do you think will make the jump? Lets talk about it on Twitter! 

CMJ RECAP ISSUE 1351 WEEK 26

Well we have made it to the half way point of the year!  Congrats everyone! What have been your favorite records of the year so far? What might of I missed so far? I still can't get enough of that Against Me! record. I also really enjoyed that Girl Talk and Freeway EP.  What are you looking forward to?  I hope there is a new Modest Mouse personally but who knows when that will come out, I imagine around the same time as Dr. Dre's DETOX comes out.

In pretty sad news it looks like the takeover of WRAS has happened.  It is a sad day for college radio as WRAS was arguably one the most important REAL college radio station. On the same level as KCRW, KCMP, and KEXP but run completely by students.  With the takeover they are no longer on that same level. I know they are fighting so be sure to follow the SAVE WRAS twitter for all updates.  With the downgrade of WRAS we are left with only 5 of the top stations as rated by CMJ. That got me thinking as to what stations should be Upgraded to take their place.

There are around 20 stations in the next tier.  I will say I only have a small idea of what goes into determining a stations weight for CMJ. If it were me there would be a simple formula you plug a bunch of numbers into that would generate a stations weight.  Wattage, Community involvement, potential listenership would be just a few.  Going only on these few criteria my top choices for station upgrades would be:  WMNF, KALX, KDHX.   We could even look to the NEXT tier of stations and I am sure we would find some really good ones deserving of having more impact on the chart. I am sure some of you think that all stations should be considered equal but thats foolish as a Spin at KEXP is worth 100x what a spin at WVGS would be.

Onto this weeks CHARTS!!!!

Parquet courts took the #1 spot last week from the Black keys and looks like they narrowly held onto it this week.  The top 3 records, Parquet Courts, Jack White and Black Keys are separated by 10 stations. Then the gap between 4 and 1 is almost 30 stations!  And the gap between 4 and 6 is only 15. So it looks like we clearly have 2 tiers here.  The youngest records making moves will have the best shots so we should be keeping an eye on Antlers and White Lung going forward. Last weeks #1 most added tie come in two very different spots. A Sunny Day in Glasgow with a top 20 debut at #19 and White Reaper at #37. Its possible A Sunny day... could make the move that we say from Antlers this week so we need to keep en eye on that.  Nothing else looks like it could seriously challenge for #1.  

This weeks top add is kind of a mystery to me as it dominated its way to the #1 add spot but still did not get over 100 adds. I consider the 100 add marker the first step in determining if a record has the juice to top #1 down the road.  You never know all the factors though could of the record been mailed late? ( should not matter with every company having digital servicing these days) Or more likely this time of year is that most stations are not around on a regular basis and therefore missed the record altogether.  

Making moves this time of year can be pretty hard with holidays/ vacations/ swimming pools/ day drinking/ birthdays  so what should be a 3 week march to the top of the charts can end up taking 5-6 weeks.   It does look like we have leveled off though over the past few weeks with an average of 230 stations per reporting period, but to show you how volatile those 230 are consider that in that time 280 stations have reported at least once.  So again you can have trouble knowing WHO will be impacting the chart.

Sorry I missed last week. I was hanging out in the Dominican Republic!  I Hope everyone has enjoyed the World Cup! I know I have. Also today is Steve's @ Pirate! Birthday he turns 74 years old!  Be sure to wish him a Happy Birthday on his twitters   . Canada at Pirate! birthday is on the 4th of july. Be sure to wish him a Happy birthday on his Instagram     My birthday is on the 6 and you can wish me a happy birthday on Twitter or Instagram  or Snapchat  or whatever social media you can find me on.  

Have a great week!

Douglas