CMJ ISSUE 1337 WEEK 12

Hello everyone from lovely New York City.  Everything so far is great, however I am still getting used to being back on east coast time.

These next few week should prove to be very exciting.  According to the past few years we have the next six weeks of increased reporters before a big drop off. So these next six weeks should be very exciting, as if they have not been exciting already.

This week was a fantastic race. We had Beck #1 for the last few weeks but a charging St. Vincent and Real Estate.  So there was always a chance Beck could hold on but with War on Drugs, Black Lips and Liars all going for adds over the past few weeks the window for both St. Vincent and Real Estate was closing fast.  So why not put everything you could into this week.

To be honest when the charts closed today I really thought it was going to be Real Estate.  They had more stations. And everything else was equal. I don't have the formulas to determine how a #1 gets there but it had to of been close. Real Estate had more of pretty much every size station.  Somehow though St. Vincent ends up at #1.  I really did think it was close but it was still somewhat of a surprise.

So now we have 6 weeks before stations stop paying attention because of "exams" and that sort of thing and we really could see a new number one each week.   I would not be shocked if St. Vincent held it for only one week before Real Estate took over and then I would not be shocked to see Black lips or War on Drugs take it as both are charing up the charts.

The strength of War on Drugs and Black Lips though is significantly less than that of St. Vincent and Real Estate I think. It does not mean they cannot get to #1 but I just wonder if there is a correlation to the number of stations reporting a record the week after the add week and its path to #1.  Beck, St, Vincent and and Real Estate all showed up on the charts the next week with in excess of 160 stations. This week we only saw around 130 stations with War on Drugs and the same with Black lips the week before.   Perhaps there is a magic number to look for in the week after ADDS to predict at #1 record. It will take more research for sure but something worth looking it.

Liars took #1 most added pretty easily this week and is also a contender for #1 the next few weeks.
The last liars record went to #3 but was only #2 most added so this has to bode somewhat well for the record. I do think it will depend on how many stations jump onboard the first week.  Again I am not positive of this 160 week after add number but it should be something to keep an eye on from now on.

So what do you think will happen for #1's ?

We have
Real Estate
Black Lips
charting up
with St. Vincent just getting in there.

you think all three get to #1? or you think St. Vincent holds?

I think we have a bunch of new number ones for the next few weeks.

Let's talk about it on twitter @theanimalarrg

CMJ ISSUE 1336 Week 11

I really don't know how much time I have to write this but there is so much going on that I wanted to talk about so lets see how much I can get to.

For whatever reason I started to doubt my thoughts on Beck. However you can never understate the power of comfort, or familiarity.  Beck might not be the coolest or even the best record out right now but EVERYONE knows who he is. Where as some of these other records  A LOT of people know who they are but A LOT is not EVERYONE.  And this is the perfect time of year to have people not care how good your record is and just know who you are. ( not saying the Beck record is bad but I have a feeling Beck is being powered by mostly familiarity.)   It's spring break, its SXSW it's midterms its " I have too many records"

So Beck continues at #1.  But man are there a lot of contenders on the way / HERE

St. Vincent and Real Estate are pretty much deadlocked at 2 and 3.  Could be fun to watch them joust back and forth for a while as Beck just hangs out.  Lets welcome Black lips to the party as jump into the top 5. They are still a bit aways from 2 or 3.

Our number one ADD from last week was Elbow and they come in as the #1 debut at #34.  Elbow will go as far as AAA takes them as a lot of college kids will be like who?

This weeks #1 ADD was War on Drugs and while I thought it would be a battle between them and Perfect Pussy... well it was not. It would be interesting to look at if records did better for those companies that had more people at home than at SXSW. Sadly I am moving and don't have the time. But the records I glanced at seem to suggest that it had no effect either way.

War on Drugs looks like it could contend and while Perfect Pussy might challenge the top 10 or squeeze out a top five I doubt they seriously challenge for #1.

That is all I have time for sadly as they are packing up my cable now...
until next time where I will be in lovely New York City!

Follow me on twitter @theanimalarrg to discuss the charts or to hear me complain about Time Warner and how bad they are at what they do.

CMJ RECAP ISSUE 1334 WEEK 9

Remember a few weeks ago when Broken Bells looked like it would float its way up to #1. Or even sooner ago when Beck looked like it would be one of the easiest #1 records of the year.  But no #1 record is ever easy. Unless of course you are Dum Dum Girls apparently.  I wish I could say it was close but it was no where near close.  There were less stations reporting this week so the number of stations reporting Dum Dum Girls dropped but the percentage of stations only went down by a little bit. Last week 67% of all stations charted Dum Dum Girls and this week there were 64% of stations.

I don't want to say Beck had a bad week or does not have a chance at #1, because he does. But the window is down to one week. I see no scenario where Beck gets #1 later than next week.  The reason is simply the HUGE adds we had this week.  Real Estate looks like what I thought Beck would look like. Almost 200 ADDS!! These days its pretty rare to get that many ADDS. #2 most added St. Vincent had 185 ADDS and that would of been amazing any other week, THEN we had Black lips that had 129 adds and that would of been #1 most added Last week, the week before, the week before that, Black Lips would of been #1 in 5 of the 9 weeks so far this year.

So what happens now?

We have Dum Dum Girls with 64% of the stations and with a pretty nice lead on #2.

#2 BECK made an awesome jump from #42 to #2. I have to wonder if any record has jumped to #2 in its first push week on the chart and failed to make #1?  I have to think that does not happen very often if ever.

#3 Broken Bells window is closed.

#7 Phantogram jumping from #65 is pretty impressive so soon but I just think they will get jumped this next week.

I would not be shocked if Beck, Dum Dum Girls, St. Vincent or Real Estate were #1 next week. Any of them. Each of them have their reasons to go for it. If I am pushing Beck I see what went for adds this week and think my window to get to #1 is THIS WEEK so I put everything I have into this.

If I am pushing Dum Dum Girls I am thinking why not keep pushing and get an early start on #1 for the year and keep the others out until I have something else I can get in there.

If I am Real Estate or St. Vincent I am thinking once one of the 2 get to #1 it is going to be hard to boot the other one out.

Should be exciting to watch.  I think Beck does it.  However if not then it really could be anyone.

So who is going to be in Texas next week?  I will! We should hang out if so be sure to touch base on the twitter @theanimalarrg

There will be no recap next week due to SXSW or the week after due to me moving to NYC ( well if something exciting happens I might try to write SOMETHING )

Thank you for reading!

Douglas