CMJ ISSUE 1289 RECAP

Just like that, we have a new #1 record. Welcome to the party Youth Lagoon.  I mentioned last week I saw them having the best shot to make a run for #1 and just like that they did. I thought Nick Cave had a shot at retaining #1. But really in looking at the big picture they look lucky to have squeezed into that window. Last weeks 45% of the stations was awfully low for a #1 and you like to see the #1 record have at least half of the stations at radio. Youth Lagoon did that this week getting up to 51% of the stations. While Nick Cave went down to 45% from last weeks high of 48%.  

We are finally starting to see some of the old records that have been clogging the top 10 for the last 6+ weeks fall out. Tegan and sara is on the way out, Local Natives, Unknown Mortal orchestra, and Foxygen should all vacate the top 10 next week.  STRFKR I thought would be a contender but is already on its downward trend.   Last weeks top add Devendra Banhart has a small window to take it next week as they move within one of the top 10. David Bowie falls back a little bit from the pace of Devendra coming in at 15.   Even though its only a few spots back I have little faith in Bowie making a run for #1 and the chances for Devendra at about 40%.  I think Youth Lagoon hangs on for another week though as the only immediate challenge could come from The Men but amazingly enough they went up 4 spots but LOST stations!  So crazy when that happens.  

What intriques me the most right now are the records that just went for adds this week.  WAVVES was your #2 most added with 105 adds and Strokes take #1 with 106 adds. Both of these should be contenders for #1.   So as of today we have 6 records that will battle for the top spot over the next few weeks. 

YOUTH LAGOON has the best shot to retain the spot 

THE MEN

DEVENDRA BANHART

DAVID BOWIE

WAVVES

THE STROKES 

you could also make arguments for  either  PHOSPHORESCENT or LOW. 

LOW has a LONG way to go and by that time there will be another 3-5 records in the mix for #1 so 

I just don't see how they do it. PHOSPHORESCENT is interesting to me because they had a really nice jump in stations this week that don't really reflect the overall jump on the charts.  As I mentioned I do think Youth Lagoon holds on for another week but then most of these records jump into the top 10. 

While I have only mentioned Wavves and The Strokes from adds this past week I think it would be foolish to overlook Born Ruffians and Telekinesis only because of their history at radio and how tough of an ADD week it was. I talked to a lot of stations this week that told me their favorite adds of the week were those 2 records.  The most talked about this week was the new Wavves and thats why i was surprised that it did not get the #1 ADD spot. I won't be shocked though when Wavves gets to #1 and The Strokes never do.  One thing The strokes have that Wavves to not is 2 indies. I have been working to quantify how much an indie is worth to a record vs no indie or two indies. Still a while away from that but watching how this plays out will give us a good idea on the impact. 

This weeks #1 debut of the week was Black Angles at #28. The biggest move of the week comes from the previously mentioned LOW with a nice 80 spot jump. We had 29 debuts this week closer to the normal we have seen to start the year.  

Thanks for reading, should be fun once everyone is back from spring breaks and we have a legit 10 records in the top 10 that could be #1 soon.   Be sure to follow me on twitter @theanimalarrg  and hit me up if you have any questions, comments, corrections or suggestions. 

CMJ RECAP ISSUE 1288

Spring break, SXSW, Midterms. So much relaxing hopefully. We missed last week with the festivities in Texas but what really did we miss? They Might Be Giants secured #1 most added and Local Natives Held strong at #1.   As I have mentioned before with all the breaks going round a lot of what happens on the chart is running in place, making it harder for movement on the charts.  Despite that there was no holding Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds back as they are the 6th #1 record of the year. They come in with our lowest percentage of the year at 48%.

It really comes down to timing with Nick Cave. For the last 5 or so weeks it has been Local Natives, Tegan and Sara, Foxygen and Unknown Mortal orchestra all going for the same spots at every station. Looking back you can see how close each week was only a few station between each record. Because of this each company pushing those records saw no need to lay off the pressure on pushing that record. But eventually stations start leaving the records and over the past few weeks the numbers of stations charting all of those records has fallen. They have fallen because the records are so old.  At the same time we have seen records from Fidlar, Ducktails, Foals and Frightened Rabbit all show promise the first week out but none of them became real challengers. Nick Cave did though. Why?

Well I have my theories and the best way to categorize it would be  --Perfect Timing-- or in this case "A fresh Start"    The first time I saw this was WAY back in 2002.  Bad Religion had been a mainstay at college radio in the 80's and 90's But slowly people stopped caring. They were on Atlantic putting out Major label records trying to write hits.  Then they got dropped and went BACK to Epitaph their home for, what fans would say, their best records.  So they go back to Epitaph and put out a record in 2002. All of a sudden people have something good to say about the band, some new angle to write about, there is a BUZZ about the band and they kill it at college radio. No one expected it but the record went straight to #1 and EASILY.  Then the next record only went top 7, the next after that top 15-20 and the last one barely cracked the top 50.  Not because the last record was any better or worse than that one in 2002 but because in 2002 they released the record at the perfect time.   It happened a few years ago with Tegan and Sara's, The Con, last year with Passion Pit.  There are many other examples and it is not to say that these were not good records it's just that the timing led perfectly to them being #1 despite the competition around them.

I say this about the Nick Cave record only because of his history. The last Nick Cave record to go #1 was 2003's Nocturama. His first for Anti. Each record after this did progressively worse. Not that people did not care. People love Nick Cave but people tend to take greatness for granted.  Until this new record. He starts his own label. The press writes more about this record. New people are introduced to him and Boom #1.

So what is next? Well Tegan and Sara, against all odds, are still moving up all the way to #2. Gaining stations. If not for the newness and excitement surrounding Nick Cave they could be #1. Do they have a shot at #1? Well my philosophy is that until a record goes down it can still go up ( when you are up that high) So until they go down I think they have a chance. However there are some fast risers I see in the upcoming weeks, some I have a lot more faith than I had in records like STRFKR ( stalled at #7 this week) or The Men ( a decent jump to #14) or Foals ( stall at #6 ) The next record with a window is Youth Lagoon with a nice move to #5 in its 3rd week or 2nd real week.  But the records that scare me right now went for adds this week. David Bowie, Low and this weeks #1 most added Devendra Banhart.  Both Bowie and Devendra debuted at 60 and 61 respectively. ( And were the #1 and #2 debuts of the week!! ) Lately #1 most added record have been debuting in the top 120-90 range. So the fact they are up that high makes me think people are tired of the records that are clogging the top of the charts. I think these should make HUGE moves next week. Top 10 should be expected for both but I would not be shocked with top 5 for both.  Low is an interesting one as I thought It would of done better but the last one did great and Sub Pop always does well so I am not ready to count them out even though they had a sub-par add week.

This week there were 23 debuts ( a really low number) we were around 30+ for the last 4-6 weeks so I am surprised to see such a drop off. Our biggest move comes from RHYE with a 154 point jump barely beating out Phosphorescent with a 151 spot jump.  Phosphorescent  are another one worth keeping an eye on. If I learned anything by watching Foxygen and Unknown Mortal Orchestra it's that you don't dismiss a Dead Oceans record right now.

I wanted to take a second to mention my highlights of the week, by far my favorite band was Widowspeak I thought they were fantastic. I could list all the bands I work with on my list but will keep it to one and that was Milk Carton Kids, they blew me away. I saw them in a church and it was PERFECT.

As always thank you for reading and if you have any questions please hit me up on Twitter via the link over to the right.

CMJ ISSUE 1286 RECAP

You never do see it all really. Every time you think you have something changes.  As you may recall last week we talked about how March is filed with craziness. I expected there to be some drop off this week from last week but it looks like we are still a week or so away from any such drop off. We actually GAINED stations this week on both the top 200 and the ADDS reporting.  With next week being SXSW we are sure to see some drop off in the next few weeks.  

This week was one of the closest races I have seen for the top 5 at CMJ. We have 5 records all within 15 stations of each other.  Local Natives held strong at #1 with 51% of the stations. WAY down from last weeks impressive 60% of stations.  The rest of the top five

Foxygen had 47% of the stations
Unknown Mortal Orchestra 47% of the stations
Tegan and Sara with 50% of the stations
Nick Cave and the Bad seeds with 46%

A handfull of stations charting any of the others in the top 4 could of pushed them ahead.  It seems like we have been talking about Tegan and Sara, Foxygen, Unknown Mortal Orchestra and Local Natives for a while now. Each have been out there for around 5+.  I thought early on this week that Nick Cave had a real chance at getting #1, making real strides from a subpar first week.  STRFKR joins the top 10 party at #7. Foals runs in place at #10 and Ducktails, Toro Y Moi, are on the way out.

I keep looking at the huge drop on Local Natives from 60% to just over 50%, a drop in just under 30 stations. Yet they hold strong at #1 and while there was some parts of Monday and Tuesday I thought they might fall they consistently came in with the most stations and the larger stations. It is just so rare to lose that much and not fall.  So what going forward?  It all depends on what Local Natives do I think. If they want to keep #1 for another week I think it is theirs but it is hard to tell what the priorities at a promotion company can be. Is it more important for another week at #1 or for a record underachieving in the top 30 to jump up. Not that you can't do both but concentrating on one or the other leads to success in one or the other instead of failure in both.

This applies to every promotion company and label, we each have goals and from week to week those change and are adjusted along with the results. Lets say you have the #2 record for 5 weeks in row and at the same time you have a record that you thought would easily get to the top 20 but is now stuck in the lower 40s. What do you do? In trying to do both you have a bigger shot for failure but choosing wrong will also lead to failure.   I tend to think if you have a record in the top 5 you keep going for it until it goes down on the charts.   Thats why I think this next week everyone in the top 5 will be pushing to stay there and also trying to get to #1. They all have a shot too.

On the outside looking in we have STRFKR with a nice jump into the top 10.  Thao and the Get down Stay down continue the slow and steady climb up and I would not be shocked to see them get into the top 5 but I find it more likely that STRFKR will make a move or even more likely that the top 5 is composed of the same 5 records but in some other order.   Running in place always worries me so you have to worry about Foals a little bit, Pissed Jeans, Beach Fossils and Frightened Rabbit all have hit the skids a bit and really don't hold any top five threat at this time.  I expected a big move from Atoms for Peace but at 22 they do not scare me that much and Cave Singers right behind them is in the same Boat.

Our top ADD this week comes from Youth Lagoon with 138 ADDS. The only other add with over 100 was The MEN with 106.

This week we saw 30 new debuts keeping in line with the year so far, 30 tends to be the average.
The top mover comes from the new WAVVES single jumping a very nice 126 spots on the flipside the biggest drop goes to Widowspeak with an 87 point drop.  The top 2 records Local Natives and Foxygen stayed the same, we also Foals in the same spot as last week. INC. also stayed at 90 for the second week in a row as did Bleeding Rainbow at 91 for the second straight week.  So a good number of records just running in place this week.

Next week I will be at SXSW and will be unable to do a Recap but if you have any questions or anything you want me to cover you can hit me up on twitter @theanimalarrg   Also thank you to those that pointed out the few mistakes I made last week. I will try to keep doing better, thank you for reading.